A lot of posters have raised the issue of the high percentage of first round QB busts. This is a legitimate concern.
One thing that has struck me over the years is how easy it is to predict the busts. Filtering out these obvious busts significantly reduces the risk.
QBs need a combination of athletic and QB skills. In the NCAA being more athletic can overcome a lot of skill deficiencies. Whereas in the NFL, the QB skills become much more important. Most of the busts share some or all of the following it scouting reports:
- Superior athletic skills which overcome skill deficiencies at college level.
- Good athlete, will need coaching on fundamentals.
- Looks good, but will need to learn pro style offense.
- has additional weapons e.g. running skills.
- Canon arm, needs refinement.
I always say "the eye doesn't lie". If you watch any college QB ask yourself does this guy look like an NFL QB? Forget about stats. Forget whether they are on the winning team. If there are any buts...., then the answer is no.
NFL QBs always look like it in college.
Because of the above, Im worried about Paxton Lynch - is he simply a bigger stronger athlete.
Conversely, Goff looks the part.