Five Dallas Cowboys Thoughts: How Important Is It To Draft A QB In Round One?

FLCowboyFan

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While you can point to a player to make any point that you want, the odds are that a top QB doesn't make it to the 2nd round. Rogers was the first pick in the second round. When you look at previous drafts to see how the players turned out, you see that most of the QB's are drafted in the first or the very early second. The ones drafted after that are usually back-ups. Can we trade back and get a good QB like the Packers did? Sure but the odds are a lot lower than if you take the guy you want when they are on the board. I think you can get too cute with slotting players to certain draft positions. It's a crap shoot so who is to say that you have the right slot put on them in the first place. The QB position is way too important in this league to play games. If you have the ability to get your guy that you believe in, you get them no matter how high you have to do so.
 

JoeyBoy718

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I think it's simple.

1) We want the best QB. We have about 3 years to address QB before Romo retires. Our options are pretty much any QB from this year (aside from maybe one of Lynch/Goff if Cleveland takes him), or late-1st/2nd round quality QBs (where hopefully we'll be drafting) in 2017 and 2018. If Goff or Lynch are better than the 3rd/4th best QBs in 2017 and 2018, then you take Goff or Lynch. It's that simple.

2) We can either give a QB a few years to develop or throw him into the fire immediately. Drafting a QB this year will give him 2-3 years to develop. Drafting a QB in the next 2 drafts will make it more likely that he has no time to develop.

So the questions are: 1) Are Goff or Lynch your best options for the remainder of the Romo era?, and 2) How many years do you want to give a QB to develop and learn from Romo?

Just don't start complaining in 3 years when we throw a 2nd round rookie into the starting position and he plays like... a 2nd round rookie.
 

bsbellomy

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All the quarterbacks taken in later than the top of the first round, including the ones like Romo who were free agents and not drafted at all, were there for the choosing at the top of the first round.

Now allow that to sink in.

Montana
Brady
Rodgers
Staubach
ect

All were available at the top of the first round and not selected.

Now this is where the fan steps beyond their status as a fan and gets into the Madden aspect of this debate.

Value. "By gosh," says Mr. or Ms. Fan, "those teams got real value for their pick when they chose these players."

The only difference between Romo and Aikman in regard to how they arrived was money. And Aikman carries a label of being the first over-all selection in a draft.

(Discounting results at this point for Romo. You can substitute Brady for Romo in this statement and it equally applies.)

So the dynamics of this proposition is bragging rights for the fans. Because all of the greats who were drafted later still got huge pay checks for their era at some point. But if you looked back on their careers, or currently at their careers, and each was selected at the top of the first round, would any fan of that team whine and complain?

Not one comment would be made about spending the money.

And since this is merely bragging rights, and there may be only a small handful of fans here or elsewhere that would not agree the draft is more hardwork, married with one million other decisions on players and coaches while assembling the eventual team that surrounds the quarterbacks, plus a Pike's Peak sized pile of luck, where the players was selected is really important in the reverse of the theory by fans who preach value.

And in that context, even quarterbacks selected at the top of the first round could fail because of the front office, the coaching staff, the players around them, and the ball bouncing funny which causes them to lose.

A prime example is Russell Wilson. He had a back-to-back championship in his hands and Pete Carroll decided to not run Marshawn Lynch until they scored, but did something incredibly stupid and threw a slant in traffic. So not only did Wilson suffer in what he could deliver, yet didn't because of his head coach, but Brady capitalized on something he could not control, and now is heralded as greatness, when all he actually did was watch from the sidelines, like you and me watched in our Barco Loungers.

So in the big scheme of things, if Wilson was taken first over-all, would that have changed the outcome of a game that means everything? No, of course not.


So this comes down to some silly bragging rights for the fans - as if their team knew the guy was going to last, and was shrewd enough to wait.

But the truth is the league missed on those players, including the team that eventually drafted them. Because knowing what we all know now because of history, each organization, and 31 other teams would have drafted those players with their first round picks, and in most likelihood, they all would have been the first over-all pick in the draft.

If the front office does their job correctly, and uses the 2nd over-all through the 8th over-all pick in this draft, regardless of which they end up with, to pick a quarterback, then surrounds him with a competent defense and play makers on offense, that is all that can be expected, and the results will be what they will be.

And the prime example of this is Eli Manning. The consensus is Eli is not elite, yet he has two rings for his troubles. So all the machinations that transpire regarding taking a quarterback, and moving down for value, and what happened in the past are shot to dog poo by that example alone.

But what really makes me chuckle is there is a group of fans here that talk about value, and trading down. Each year they say the same things about getting value for the picks. They point to selections by this team and other teams that did not work out and suggest this is the foundation for picking later. As if two lesser players makes up for one more significant player. Then in the discussion about quarterbacks specifically they talk about the Brady's and Montana's and how selecting at the top of the drat is where the biggest mistakes happen.

The value chart is significant only in regard to the cost of doing business. Yet these fans will drone on about the draft and value, as if this is a business.

Well it is a business.

And since some of these very same fans are mortified by a comment the team should lose on purpose to get a better draft pick. Even though using their theory of trading down and accumulating picks is a better business decision than winning a meaningless game, I have to ask this.

Why is it a business when it comes to draft picks and cost to the team to trade away from the best players for more players, but it is not a business decision when it is positioning the team for a better draft day possibility by tanking games after the season is lost? Even if using their theory of trading away from the cream is applied when using a higher pick?

Of course the answer is mythical pride.

I submit this. San Antonio Spurs tanked games to get a shot at Tim Duncan when they had David Robinson. Think those trophies are tarnished in the eyes of the fans of San Antonio? Because they won championships with that tanking. As did Houston Rockets when they tanked for a shot at Olajuwon.

If the game is ultimately about winning, then winning can take many forms, and business decisions in lieu of trophies are the foundation for winning and championships.

Masterfully put my friend. I'd like to point to those who were so upset when we drafted Travis Frederick because we could have had him half a round later.
 

bsbellomy

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I just hope we don't draft Connor Cook, unless we are specifically drafting for a backup qb for the next 10 years. If we don't draft QB round 1, Kevin Hogan is the guy I'd like to see us pick.
 

bayeslife

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Dallas had done very well with their first round picks in the last few years with multiple pro-bowlers...so, whomever is making those choices needs to NOT be kicked out of the war room for the other choices

IMO, a QB is a necessity, but you don't reach in the draft for one...especially if there is a bonafide star at another position (like on defense)....I am going to reserve most of my comments for the draft until this week's game is over and we know where Dallas is drafting....but, I am not adverse to a trade down in round 1 if we get ridiculous value...but like I said above, let the guy who is drafting the 1st rounders make the decisions, not anyone with Jones or Garrett after their name (McClay?)

QB is the only position that you almost always have to reach for. It's the single most important position in professional sports and if you don't have one, your team probably sucks.
 

NEODOG

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The probability is higher to obtain a franchise QB in the early rounds vs the later rounds. Why are we having this conversation? Do you not agree with that bold statement?

Actually it's not that clear.... The amount of failure is greater

The #'s speak more than my opinion, those are facts

Is there a clear cut franchise QB in this draft at our position?
 

NEODOG

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The probability is higher to obtain a franchise QB in the early rounds vs the later rounds. Why are we having this conversation? Do you not agree with that bold statement?

Also, this offensive system works because of Romo......you're willing to spend a 1st on a QB that? Weeden was told exactly what to do, so that's a waste of 1st Rd talent on the QB spot. No WAY do I waste a 1st on our regime at the QB spot. We'd won more games this year with better coaching/sxheme
 

superonyx

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Look at the history of 1st round QB's and see if we MUST draft one just to say we drafted one....people say it's a no brainer ect....

This was the thinking that got some of these guys drafted.
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
EJ Manuel
Geno Smith
RG 3
Ryan Tanehill
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

Only Luck, Newton and Bridgewater are 1st picks that are working out for their teams.

It's far from a no brainer....
I actually trust Romo to do what he said and find us our next QB.
The man understand what it takes to be successful at the QB position.
 

8FOR!3

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Paxton Lynch has me scared after his bowl game performance yesterday. Not accurate, 100 yards, and a pick. That tells me if Goff is unavailable you wait till the second round and take Carson Wentz or Dak Prescott who's a gamer.
 

robjay04

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Lord help us.... Our fans have adopted the FO long term strategy.

20 years strong.....

But let's keep rummaging in the blue light aisles for our next franchise QB. Yup.
:thumbup:

Just being logical and looking at other teams around the league and how they landed their franchise QB.

As I said...besides the Manning brothers, no top 10 pick has won a Superbowl with their original team since John Elway. It is true, there are more first round busts than firsts. The team needs to make it a point to land a QB to develop as well as a legitimate backup to step in, but if you are not smart about it...you end up blowing your first on a guy that can't play and you have to turn around and spend another first on a QB in four years.

I support whichever route we go in the draft as long as we get a QB with some long term value---if a QB is there that the team loves, take him...if you are choosing a Jake Locker over a JJ Watt, I have a problem.
 

Bullflop

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I think this team has pretty much painted itself in a corner when it comes to the degree of desperation it faces to draft a QB very early this year. If they think one or another is very possibly the answer in their long term needs, then, by all means, they should jump at the opportunity to take him. The golden opportunity to take one this early comes along rarely. We'd better jump at the chance while it's available.
 

conner01

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It depends. It would be great to get the top qb in the draft when we pick. There may only be one guy with a first round grade. If he goes to Cleveland I wouldn't want them to take the 30th best player at pick 4 or 6. I think it is important to get a qb that they consider a potential starter in a year or 2. I think to get that guy they can't wait any lower than their 3rd rd pick which will still be a top 70 pick.

Very good point. We need a QB but to me only two are worth that high a pick
That pick you can't reach on, you have to add a impact player and if not a QB then another position and get your QB later
 

robjay04

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Very good point. We need a QB but to me only two are worth that high a pick
That pick you can't reach on, you have to add a impact player and if not a QB then another position and get your QB later

Worst thing in the world we can do is ruin this opportunity that probably won't come around again for 20 years if history tells us anything.
 

vaturkey

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I think Goff is similar to Matt Ryan in many ways. Same size, similar arm strength, good in the pocket and pretty smart. If your next QB post Romo is a Matt Ryan clone that would be a pretty good option. Taking him with our number 1 pick if he's available wouldn't be a bad thing. If Cleveland is staying with Johnny Football and Tenn is staying with their young QB, that means you only have to get by San Fran who is most likely looking for someone who replace Kapernick (who probably can't be cut for salary cap reasons) and who would take the Goff being he is from California.
 

loublue22

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I just hope we don't draft Connor Cook, unless we are specifically drafting for a backup qb for the next 10 years. If we don't draft QB round 1, Kevin Hogan is the guy I'd like to see us pick.

Cook will be the best QB in this class
 

Irvin88_4life

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Vitally important.

While it's true that a high percentage of 1st round QBs are busts, the facts are that most starting QBs in the NFL entered the league as high draft picks. A higher percentage than probably any other position on the field.

Do a roll call of all regular starters if you dont believe me.

Romo, Brady and Rodgers weren't drafted high
 

Bleu Star

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I think Goff is similar to Matt Ryan in many ways. Same size, similar arm strength, good in the pocket and pretty smart. If your next QB post Romo is a Matt Ryan clone that would be a pretty good option. Taking him with our number 1 pick if he's available wouldn't be a bad thing. If Cleveland is staying with Johnny Football and Tenn is staying with their young QB, that means you only have to get by San Fran who is most likely looking for someone who replace Kapernick (who probably can't be cut for salary cap reasons) and who would take the Goff being he is from California.

Goff is impressive. You say Matty Ice. I say Drew Brees. Regardless, he has all the intangibles (& is a gamer as proven yesterday).

Note to bargain shoppers: Goff won't be available in the blue light aisles.

Given their history, there's a major possibility Cleveland screws this up and delivers Goff to us.... assuming we don't end up drafting #8 because beating the Skins is soooooooo important.
 
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