Herd w/Colin Cowherd:"There are some sobering numbers and data on Dak Prescott

[CATCH17]

So if you have a good rushing game it helps the QB? Wow...there's some rocket science.

Dak’s a front runner.

It’s when the chips are down he gets exposed.

When the ships sinking he puts more holes in the boat.

 

[pansophy]

This result doesn’t seem right. I think it is “assuming” that the QB has less than 100 yards, as I used your phrasing, but replaced Mahomes with Dak and Chiefs with Cowboys, and Dak has a significant winning percentage.

yeah, statmuse was weird so I decided to do the analysis myself using this R package: https://www.nflfastr.com/
Only a very few QBs have a winning record when the team doesn't run for over 100, but these numbers are really bad.

QB_winner	winner_over_100	wins	loses	win_pct

1	P.Mahomes	0	27	14	0.65853659
2	T.Tagovailoa	0	14	9	0.60869565
3	T.Brady	0	33	25	0.56896552
4	A.Rodgers	0	20	19	0.51282051
5	B.Roethlisberger	0	20	19	0.51282051
6	J.Burrow	0	16	16	0.50000000
7	J.Herbert	0	18	19	0.48648649
8	A.Luck	0	8	9	0.47058824
9	C.Palmer	0	6	7	0.46153846
10	D.Watson	0	11	13	0.45833333
11	R.Tannehill	0	14	17	0.45161290
12	R.Wilson	0	20	25	0.44444444
13	M.Trubisky	0	11	14	0.44000000
14	N.Foles	0	6	8	0.42857143
15	M.Stafford	0	29	39	0.42647059
16	D.Brees	0	9	13	0.40909091
17	J.Flacco	0	13	20	0.39393939
18	A.Smith	0	7	11	0.38888889
19	P.Rivers	0	15	24	0.38461538
20	D.Carr	0	21	34	0.38181818
21	R.Fitzpatrick	0	8	13	0.38095238
22	J.Goff	0	13	22	0.37142857
23	K.Cousins	0	22	38	0.36666667
24	J.Garoppolo	0	6	11	0.35294118
25	T.Lawrence	0	8	15	0.34782609
26	J.Winston	0	10	20	0.33333333
27	M.Ryan	0	19	39	0.32758621
28	G.Smith	0	6	14	0.30000000
29	S.Darnold	0	8	20	0.28571429
30	A.Dalton	0	13	33	0.28260870
31	D.Prescott	0	7	22	0.24137931
32	E.Manning	0	6	19	0.24000000
33	B.Mayfield	0	7	24	0.22580645
34	NA	0	11	116	0.08661417

 

[pansophy]

And this is the data for when the team runs for more than 100 yards. This is all data from 2016-2023.

QB_winner	winner_over_100	wins	loses	win_pct

1	B.Purdy	1	18	2	0.9000000
2	T.Brady	1	45	5	0.9000000
3	B.Roethlisberger	1	33	5	0.8684211
4	P.Mahomes	1	46	7	0.8679245
5	J.Garoppolo	1	34	6	0.8500000
6	A.Smith	1	22	4	0.8461538
7	J.Allen	1	55	10	0.8461538
8	D.Brees	1	38	8	0.8260870
9	D.Prescott	1	64	17	0.7901235
10	A.Rodgers	1	39	12	0.7647059
11	L.Jackson	1	52	16	0.7647059
12	P.Walker	1	6	2	0.7500000
13	J.Hurts	1	29	10	0.7435897
14	T.Taylor	1	17	6	0.7391304
15	J.Burrow	1	14	5	0.7368421
16	C.Keenum	1	22	8	0.7333333
17	G.Smith	1	11	4	0.7333333
18	K.Cousins	1	44	17	0.7213115
19	A.Luck	1	10	4	0.7142857
20	K.Pickett	1	10	4	0.7142857
21	T.Tagovailoa	1	17	7	0.7083333
22	R.Tannehill	1	38	17	0.6909091
23	M.Stafford	1	28	13	0.6829268
24	C.Wentz	1	41	20	0.6721311
25	J.Cutler	1	6	3	0.6666667
26	J.Goff	1	54	27	0.6666667
27	P.Rivers	1	27	14	0.6585366
28	M.Ryan	1	32	18	0.6400000
29	M.Jones	1	14	8	0.6363636
30	D.Carr	1	41	24	0.6307692
31	B.Mayfield	1	34	20	0.6296296
32	R.Wilson	1	49	29	0.6282051
33	M.Mariota	1	26	16	0.6190476

 

[pansophy]

...and just because someone is going to ask, here is the data during Romo's time from 2006-2015. Here is team rushes fewer than 100 yards...

QB_winner	winner_over_100	wins	loses	win_pct

1	P.Manning	0	46	22	0.6764706
2	T.Brady	0	35	19	0.6481481
3	B.Favre	0	18	13	0.5806452
4	A.Rodgers	0	24	23	0.5106383
5	A.Dalton	0	14	15	0.4827586
6	A.Luck	0	11	12	0.4782609
7	B.Roethlisberger	0	30	33	0.4761905
8	K.Warner	0	12	15	0.4444444
9	C.Kaepernick	0	7	10	0.4117647
10	T.Romo	0	21	30	0.4117647
11	M.Ryan	0	25	37	0.4032258
12	D.Brees	0	29	43	0.4027778
13	C.Pennington	0	8	12	0.4000000
14	D.McNabb	0	10	15	0.4000000
15	R.Grossman	0	6	9	0.4000000
16	M.Stafford	0	20	31	0.3921569
17	M.Hasselbeck	0	16	25	0.3902439
18	J.Flacco	0	18	29	0.3829787
19	P.Rivers	0	28	50	0.3589744
20	K.Orton	0	12	22	0.3529412
21	C.Palmer	0	22	42	0.3437500
22	A.Smith	0	11	22	0.3333333
23	E.Manning	0	23	48	0.3239437
24	S.Bradford	0	9	22	0.2903226
25	J.Cutler	0	15	38	0.2830189
26	M.Schaub	0	9	23	0.2812500
27	D.Carr	0	7	21	0.2500000
28	R.Tannehill	0	8	24	0.2500000
29	R.Fitzpatrick	0	7	26	0.2121212

 

[pansophy]

and now the team runs more than 100 yards.

QB_winner	winner_over_100	wins	loses	win_pct

1	P.Manning	1	57	5	0.9193548
2	T.Brady	1	76	9	0.8941176
3	D.Huard	1	8	1	0.8888889
4	T.Romo	1	56	14	0.8000000
5	A.Rodgers	1	54	14	0.7941176
6	K.Warner	1	11	3	0.7857143
7	P.Rivers	1	63	18	0.7777778
8	A.Dalton	1	34	10	0.7727273
9	J.Flacco	1	57	17	0.7702703
10	A.Luck	1	23	7	0.7666667
11	D.Brees	1	65	20	0.7647059
12	T.Bridgewater	1	13	4	0.7647059
13	M.Ryan	1	47	15	0.7580645
14	B.Roethlisberger	1	55	18	0.7534247
15	N.Foles	1	15	5	0.7500000
16	S.McNair	1	9	3	0.7500000
17	M.Schaub	1	38	13	0.7450980
18	R.Wilson	1	39	14	0.7358491
19	B.Hoyer	1	8	3	0.7272727
20	K.Cousins	1	8	3	0.7272727
21	J.Garcia	1	13	5	0.7222222
22	M.Moore	1	10	4	0.7142857
23	D.Anderson	1	17	7	0.7083333
24	E.Manning	1	60	25	0.7058824
25	V.Young	1	26	11	0.7027027
26	C.Pennington	1	14	6	0.7000000
27	G.Frerotte	1	7	3	0.7000000
28	C.Palmer	1	43	19	0.6935484
29	J.Cutler	1	52	24	0.6842105
30	M.Hasselbeck	1	28	13	0.6829268
31	A.Smith	1	43	20	0.6825397
32	R.Grossman	1	15	7	0.6818182
33	B.Favre	1	26	13	0.6666667
34	C.Kaepernick	1	20	10	0.6666667

 

[coult44]

So if you have a good rushing game it helps the QB? Wow...there's some rocket science.

Tell that to Tom and Pat.

 

[Brax]

Dak’s a front runner.

It’s when the chips are down he gets exposed.

When the ships sinking he puts more holes in the boat.

Here you go Playoff Dak to the rescue
https://www.pennlive.com/sports/202...-after-embarrassing-half-against-packers.html

 

[triplets_93]

So if you have a good rushing game it helps the QB? Wow...there's some rocket science.

I'm gonna have to let Troy Aikman know about this !!!

 

[khiladi]

yeah, statmuse was weird so I decided to do the analysis myself using this R package: https://www.nflfastr.com/
Only a very few QBs have a winning record when the team doesn't run for over 100, but these numbers are really bad.

QB_winner	winner_over_100	wins	loses	win_pct

1	P.Mahomes	0	27	14	0.65853659
2	T.Tagovailoa	0	14	9	0.60869565
3	T.Brady	0	33	25	0.56896552
4	A.Rodgers	0	20	19	0.51282051
5	B.Roethlisberger	0	20	19	0.51282051
6	J.Burrow	0	16	16	0.50000000
7	J.Herbert	0	18	19	0.48648649
8	A.Luck	0	8	9	0.47058824
9	C.Palmer	0	6	7	0.46153846
10	D.Watson	0	11	13	0.45833333
11	R.Tannehill	0	14	17	0.45161290
12	R.Wilson	0	20	25	0.44444444
13	M.Trubisky	0	11	14	0.44000000
14	N.Foles	0	6	8	0.42857143
15	M.Stafford	0	29	39	0.42647059
16	D.Brees	0	9	13	0.40909091
17	J.Flacco	0	13	20	0.39393939
18	A.Smith	0	7	11	0.38888889
19	P.Rivers	0	15	24	0.38461538
20	D.Carr	0	21	34	0.38181818
21	R.Fitzpatrick	0	8	13	0.38095238
22	J.Goff	0	13	22	0.37142857
23	K.Cousins	0	22	38	0.36666667
24	J.Garoppolo	0	6	11	0.35294118
25	T.Lawrence	0	8	15	0.34782609
26	J.Winston	0	10	20	0.33333333
27	M.Ryan	0	19	39	0.32758621
28	G.Smith	0	6	14	0.30000000
29	S.Darnold	0	8	20	0.28571429
30	A.Dalton	0	13	33	0.28260870
31	D.Prescott	0	7	22	0.24137931
32	E.Manning	0	6	19	0.24000000
33	B.Mayfield	0	7	24	0.22580645
34	NA	0	11	116	0.08661417

Dope work! What are these numbers for? The last how many years?

That’s actually really bad for Dak.

 

[pansophy]

Dope work! What are these numbers for? The last how many years?

That’s actually really bad for Dak.

This for all games from 2016-2023. For a QB to get credit for the win or loss they had to throw 80% of the passes for the team for the game.

 

[DFWJC]

It really is a Dak thing. I’ve done the research. Dak is nothing without 100 yards from the RB.

Jalen Hurts has 6 wins in just 2 1/2 seasons.

Mahomes had 7 just this season.

Burrow had 9 last season.

Geno Smith has 5 the past 2 seasons.

Those are just a few I looked at. I’m sure there’s more but I’m not going back past 2021 lol

But yeah, Dak sucks.

Yeah.
These guys saying ”well,duh” arent looking at how incredibly extreme those numbers are.

Of course a run games helps you win, but you shouldnt have to have 100 yards almost every time to hope to win. And your numbers prove it

 

[Spottswoode]

Yeah.
These guys saying ”well,duh” arent looking at how incredibly extreme those numbers are.

Of course a run games helps you win, but you shouldnt have to have 100 yards almost every time to hope to win. And your numbers prove it

I’m guessing statistics wasn’t a strength in college. These numbers you reference prove nothing. This is a prime example of a sloppy attempt at using analytics to prove a point without understanding how to apply statistics.

 

[pansophy]

I’m guessing statistics wasn’t a strength in college. These numbers you reference prove nothing. This is a prime example of a sloppy attempt at using analytics to prove a point without understanding how to apply statistics.

Prove, no. But it has the advantage of not cherrypicking a few QBs out of the pack. The ranking here is more important than the actual percentages because alternative explanations for why winning percentages would decrease when not gaining 100 yards as a team should on average apply to all QBs.

Are you suggesting that over 7 years worth of games there is a selection effect that would apply to Dak (and few others) that would explain why he is at the bottom of all QBs in winning percentage when his team doesn't rush for 100 yards?

...and for the record, I did this analysis because I was curious what the data really showed rather than taking Cowherd's word for it. I would have posted it had he been in the top 10 as well.

For people who don't think these numbers reflect reality and believe Dak is still a top 10 QB when the running game is poor, in principle, we should be able to segment the data in such a way to show that. Suggest an alternative rather than simply claiming to know more about statistics and discounting it.

 

[DFWJC]

I’m guessing statistics wasn’t a strength in college. These numbers you reference prove nothing. This is a prime example of a sloppy attempt at using analytics to prove a point without understanding how to apply statistics.

No need to make it personal or try to hurl insults
and no, Stats, or calc1/2/3, or Diff Q, or linear Alg, etc, etc where never remote issues for me in college or grad school

 

[Spottswoode]

No need to make it personal or try to hurl insults
and no, Stats, or calc1/2/3, or Diff Q, or linear Alg, etc, etc where never remote issues for me in college or grad school

And if suggesting stats isn’t a strength is an insult on this site, you must be outraged by the other 99% of posts.

 

[Spottswoode]

Prove, no. But it has the advantage of not cherrypicking a few QBs out of the pack. The ranking here is more important than the actual percentages because alternative explanations for why winning percentages would decrease when not gaining 100 yards as a team should on average apply to all QBs.

Are you suggesting that over 7 years worth of games there is a selection effect that would apply to Dak (and few others) that would explain why he is at the bottom of all QBs in winning percentage when his team doesn't rush for 100 yards?

...and for the record, I did this analysis because I was curious what the data really showed rather than taking Cowherd's word for it. I would have posted it had he been in the top 10 as well.

For people who don't think these numbers reflect reality and believe Dak is still a top 10 QB when the running game is poor, in principle, we should be able to segment the data in such a way to show that. Suggest an alternative rather than simply claiming to know more about statistics and discounting it.

I’m not suggesting anything…I’ll leave the arguing to the kids. I have no skin in this game and couldn’t care less about the incessant Dak arguments on this site. My focus was on the specific use of some stats that have been continually referenced as some sort of proof when in fact, they are a great example of how not to use stats to prove a point.

 

[Spottswoode]

No need to make it personal or try to hurl insults
and no, Stats, or calc1/2/3, or Diff Q, or linear Alg, etc, etc where never remote issues for me in college or grad school

Then you should know that the stats you replied to are not proof (your words) and are in fact, a poor example of using isolated stats to prove a point.

 

[Spottswoode]

Prove, no. But it has the advantage of not cherrypicking a few QBs out of the pack. The ranking here is more important than the actual percentages because alternative explanations for why winning percentages would decrease when not gaining 100 yards as a team should on average apply to all QBs.

Are you suggesting that over 7 years worth of games there is a selection effect that would apply to Dak (and few others) that would explain why he is at the bottom of all QBs in winning percentage when his team doesn't rush for 100 yards?

...and for the record, I did this analysis because I was curious what the data really showed rather than taking Cowherd's word for it. I would have posted it had he been in the top 10 as well.

For people who don't think these numbers reflect reality and believe Dak is still a top 10 QB when the running game is poor, in principle, we should be able to segment the data in such a way to show that. Suggest an alternative rather than simply claiming to know more about statistics and discounting it.

And by the way, my post had nothing to do with you. Your data had much more utility than the cherry picked stats that I was referencing in my reply. They still don’t prove anything but I’m sure proof wasn’t your objective when posting. They just become proof depending on which side of this silly argument one falls on.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Wow. Pretty rough for Dakota. The ultimate bus driver list for QBs on bottom of list like Prescott. I see Cousins is close to Dak also. Peas in a pod.

yeah, statmuse was weird so I decided to do the analysis myself using this R package: https://www.nflfastr.com/
Only a very few QBs have a winning record when the team doesn't run for over 100, but these numbers are really bad.

QB_winner	winner_over_100	wins	loses	win_pct

1	P.Mahomes	0	27	14	0.65853659
2	T.Tagovailoa	0	14	9	0.60869565
3	T.Brady	0	33	25	0.56896552
4	A.Rodgers	0	20	19	0.51282051
5	B.Roethlisberger	0	20	19	0.51282051
6	J.Burrow	0	16	16	0.50000000
7	J.Herbert	0	18	19	0.48648649
8	A.Luck	0	8	9	0.47058824
9	C.Palmer	0	6	7	0.46153846
10	D.Watson	0	11	13	0.45833333
11	R.Tannehill	0	14	17	0.45161290
12	R.Wilson	0	20	25	0.44444444
13	M.Trubisky	0	11	14	0.44000000
14	N.Foles	0	6	8	0.42857143
15	M.Stafford	0	29	39	0.42647059
16	D.Brees	0	9	13	0.40909091
17	J.Flacco	0	13	20	0.39393939
18	A.Smith	0	7	11	0.38888889
19	P.Rivers	0	15	24	0.38461538
20	D.Carr	0	21	34	0.38181818
21	R.Fitzpatrick	0	8	13	0.38095238
22	J.Goff	0	13	22	0.37142857
23	K.Cousins	0	22	38	0.36666667
24	J.Garoppolo	0	6	11	0.35294118
25	T.Lawrence	0	8	15	0.34782609
26	J.Winston	0	10	20	0.33333333
27	M.Ryan	0	19	39	0.32758621
28	G.Smith	0	6	14	0.30000000
29	S.Darnold	0	8	20	0.28571429
30	A.Dalton	0	13	33	0.28260870
31	D.Prescott	0	7	22	0.24137931
32	E.Manning	0	6	19	0.24000000
33	B.Mayfield	0	7	24	0.22580645
34	NA	0	11	116	0.08661417

 

[khiladi]

This for all games from 2016-2023. For a QB to get credit for the win or loss they had to throw 80% of the passes for the team for the game.

What’s interesting is this idea that the running game didn’t really matter in regards to winning was thrown around on this board a lot. No need to get into the motivations behind it, but efforts were made to say it was, I believe, “passing efficiency” that won games.

Nobody seemed to understand that while statistics don’t lie, the issue is how you read them.

A team that threatens with the run is going to make padding that much easier, as the defense has to take into account that option. The stat won’t show it, but the formation the defense was in at that time, will show it.