It's tough to tell, because I think Bama relaxed after getting such a big lead and having the backup QB play so ineptly for the first half.
They got caught back on their heels when Texas started making their comeback, and it took them a bit to recover, but then they did. If Colt never goes out, who knows what Bama's mindset would have been.
The biggest thing that would have been different is that I think Texas would have scored at least one, maybe two, touchdowns on those opening drives, and that would have made a big difference.
In the end, though, injuries happen, and it's tough to play the "what if" game... I mean, what if Bradford wouldn't have gotten knocked out of the Red River Shootout? It's pretty clear OU would have won that game handily and Texas wouldn't have even been playing last night.