MLB Offseason thread

[Trouty]

Well, if the rumors are not true, then that's even better for Texas- they would likley pitch a Darvish/Otani package to him. Darvish still lives in the Metroplex and his current wife/kids supposedly love it there. I could see him coming back to Texas this offseason. That would give you a solid staff of Darvish/Otani/Hamels/Perez/Fister. They could offer him the DH as well.

In regards to LAA - location = culture/Japanese community, so that is what I meant for what they have to offer. Playing with Trout would be awesome, but that's about all I see as a positive on that team. You have $110 million tied up in those 4 position players + your boy Pujols The staff isn't what I would consider young - A couple mid twenties #3 types. Richards is a FA next year and is gonnn wanna get paid, so there is another $20 million.

It was just this year, people were saying they should trade Trout now and get to rebuilding. Had a nice run this year, but I wouldn't expect it next couple years. The minors were depleted and just now showing some recovery.

Delirious people were saying they should trade Trout. The most common counter was that no team in the league, outside of maybe HOU, had enough pieces to land him, and HOU would have to include Altuve and Correa, as well as their top 3-4 prospects. Not gonna happen either way.

GRich isn't going anywhere. He and Trout are best friends, and he hasn't been healthy enough to command a huge payday. But between he, Skaggs, Heaney, Tropiano, Shoemaker, and Bridwell, we have a nice, young roster. They just need to be healthy. Otani would be a godsend.

I can't see Otani in TEX for the life of me. But nothing would surprise me, too much

Also: Pujols grrrrrr!!!! PLEASE RETIRE

 

[Nightman]

Ohtani should still go AL is he wants to hit regularly

The DH affords him the chance to hit 3-4 times a week when he isn't Pitching without playing the field

SEA seems like the best fit........ they say he doesn't care about money and still lives in a dorm room in Japan...... no MLB teams are small markets but SEA, SD, TEX aren't obsessive like NYY, BOS, LAD and CHI

Yankees should have hired Ichiro instead of Aaron Boone as manager........lol

 

[Trouty]

Ohtani should still go AL is he wants to hit regularly

The DH affords him the chance to hit 3-4 times a week when he isn't Pitching without playing the field

SEA seems like the best fit........ they say he doesn't care about money and still lives in a dorm room in Japan...... no MLB teams are small markets but SEA, SD, TEX aren't obsessive like NYY, BOS, LAD and CHI

Yankees should have hired Ichiro instead of Aaron Boone as manager........lol

I think the Halos are small market, despite what Arte Moreno wants to tell us.

It's funny you bring up Ichiro, Night -- a lot of Angels' fans are proposing we hire him in some capacity to further lure Ōtani LOL

I do agree that SEA should be the front runner. Damn that Jerry Dipoto!

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Delirious people were saying they should trade Trout. The most common counter was that no team in the league, outside of maybe HOU, had enough pieces to land him, and HOU would have to include Altuve and Correa, as well as their top 3-4 prospects.

HA-HA-HA-HA!

Me thinks you have GREATLY overvalued Trout... Or you've undervalued Altuve, Correa and the top Houston prospects.

Trout's a great player, but I'm not trading Altuve and Correa for him.

No way, no how.

 

[Tabascocat]

Meanwhile, I am patiently waiting for the Mets to get in on the action........

 

[Trouty]

HA-HA-HA-HA!

Me thinks you have GREATLY overvalued Trout... Or you've undervalued Altuve, Correa and the top Houston prospects.

Trout's a great player, but I'm not trading Altuve and Correa for him.

No way, no how.

That's what it would take, Mike. Each single WAR is worth $10 million. Trout is a 9-12 WAR player.

Like I said, no team would be willing to deal what it takes to land Trout. Only HOU probably has what it would take, when combining proven youth at the big league level, low salary, and the top third of your 12 best prospects.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

That's what it would take, Mike. Each single WAR is worth $10 million. Trout is a 9-12 WAR player.

Like I said, no team would be willing to deal what it takes to land Trout. Only HOU probably has what it would take, when combining proven youth at the big league level, low salary, and the top third of your 12 best prospects.

First off WAR isn't entirely accurate... Bill James has said so himself.

Plus there's no adjustment for a player playing at a high level at a more important position such as SS and 2B as opposed to a player playing at a high level at a slightly less important position (and there should be).

At this point Trout is more valuable than either Altuve or Correa... But more valuable than both? Uh no.

 

[Trouty]

First off WAR isn't entirely accurate... Bill James has said so himself.

Plus there's no adjustment for a player playing at a high level at a more important position such as SS and 2B as opposed to a player playing at a high level at a slightly less important position (and there should be).

At this point Trout is more valuable than either Altuve or Correa... But more valuable than both? Uh no.

WAR is used by BaseballGraphs (baseball-reference.com), as well as FanGraphs. It's a real stat. Sure, some straggler from the BBWAA holding on to the "old way" may discount it, but it is the single, largest metric used when evaluating a player's worth.

With that said, do you think any GM in all of baseball trades Trout for "only" Altuve and a few prospects? No way. That's why I said Trout is too rich for any single org to trade for. It would take a 3-4 team-involved trade to land Trout, with a boatload of loot going to the Angels.

CF is the most premium of the positions on the field, also. More than SS. More than 2B. I'd argue an elite 3B is harder to find than 2B or SS. CF is the hardest.

I wouldn't do the trade if I'm HOU, either, but that's what Trout's value is, my pal, Mike. I've qualified that (HOU wouldn't do it) in every post.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

WAR is used by BaseballGraphs, as well as FanGraphs. It's a real stat. Sure, some straggler from the BBWAA holding on to the "old way" may discount it, but it is the single, largest metric used when evaluating a player's worth.

With that said, do you think any GM in all of baseball trades Trout for "only" Altuve and a few prospects? No way. That's why I said Trout is too rich for any single org to trade for. It would take a 3-4 team-involved trade to land Trout, with a boatload of loot going to the Angels.

CF is the most premium of the positions on the field, also. More than SS. More than 2B. I'd argue an elite 3B is harder to find than 2B or SS. CF is the hardest.

I wouldn't do the trade if I'm HOU, either, but that's what Trout's value is, my pal, Mike. I've qualified that (HOU wouldn't do it) in every post.

No way is the CF the premium position on the field... I have no idea where you even got that. SS & 2B are involved in far more plays. In Bill James defensive spectrum this is how things go from most to least important:

SS - 2B - CF - 3B - RF - LF - 3B

It's easy to find guys that can wield the leather at SS & 2B.

Heck of a lot harder to find guys that can provide the offense of a "power" position like 1B or RF AND not be a sieve defensively.

As far as WAR Fanographs and Baseballgraphs don't even agree on what should be included in WAR, which lessens its value to a degree.

 

[Trouty]

No way is the CF the premium position on the field... I have no idea where you even got that. SS & 2B are involved in far more plays. In Bill James defensive spectrum this is how things go from most to least important:

SS - 2B - CF - 3B - RF - LF - 3B

It's easy to find guys that can wield the leather at SS & 2B.

Heck of a lot harder to find guys that can provide the offense of a "power" position like 1B or RF AND not be a sieve defensively.

As far as WAR Fanographs and Baseballgraphs don't even agree on what should be included in WAR, which lessens its value to a degree.

There's fewer elite CF than there are SS and 2B.

Who is this Bill James fella you keep citing, Mike? I feel like I've heard his name before but don't recall where. Also, you listed third base twice, and I know its not behind RF or LF.

I like the subjectivity of fG and bG, personally. One puts a larger emphasis on D, the other less so. It is what it is, Mike. And Trout is always number one in both

WAR (bWAR and fWAR), wRC+, OPS+, FIP, WHIP to name a few, are the new stats. The sabremetrics. Gone are AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS etc. While they're still used and cited, there's more advanced stats that tell a greater story, leveling the playing field for players like Mike who play in pitching parks. H, R, HR, RBI, SB, Extra Base H, BB will always be important, with that said.

 

[Trouty]

If Altuve has an additional year or two (in a row) hitting around or above .330, 20-25 HR, 180-210 hits, 30-40 DBLs, then he will be the only player to hold a candlestick to Trout's phenom consistency. Not Trout's numbers, mind you, just his consistency.

At this point, Altuve is a Mauer-type to me (not a bad player to be comp'd to). If he remains consistent and healthy, he is tracking a HoF career.

 

[Nightman]

HA-HA-HA-HA!

Me thinks you have GREATLY overvalued Trout... Or you've undervalued Altuve, Correa and the top Houston prospects.

Trout's a great player, but I'm not trading Altuve and Correa for him.

No way, no how.

Gotta agree with you here......Altuve, Correa, plus for Trout is a non-starter

More like ABergman-SS, Kyle Tucker-OF, Whitely-2016#1 pick, Derek Fisher-OF

 

[Nightman]

NYY should go after Arrieta now that Ohtani is gone

3/36m should be close...... not interested in bringing CC back

Would also sign Matt Adams or Logan Morrison for 1b/DH

Try to trade Ellsbury and Headley for salary relief to get under Luxury Tax

 

[FloridaRob]

In Mets news, they did not get the option to speak with Ohtani. In other news Water is wet, the sky is blue, and Michael Jackson is dead.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

There's fewer elite CF than there are SS and 2B.

Who is this Bill James fella you keep citing, Mike? I feel like I've heard his name before but don't recall where. Also, you listed third base twice, and I know its not behind RF or LF.

I like the subjectivity of fG and bG, personally. One puts a larger emphasis on D, the other less so. It is what it is, Mike. And Trout is always number one in both

WAR (bWAR and fWAR), wRC+, OPS+, FIP, WHIP to name a few, are the new stats. The sabremetrics. Gone are AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS etc. While they're still used and cited, there's more advanced stats that tell a greater story, leveling the playing field for players like Mike who play in pitching parks. H, R, HR, RBI, SB, Extra Base H, BB will always be important, with that said.

Sorry... 1B should be at the bottom of the barrel.


Bill James is the father of sabermetrics.

 

[Trouty]

Sorry... 1B should be at the bottom of the barrel.


Bill James is the father of sabermetrics.

1B is absolutely the least important of the fielded positions.

Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, doesn’t like WAR?

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Gotta agree with you here......Altuve, Correa, plus for Trout is a non-starter

More like ABergman-SS, Kyle Tucker-OF, Whitely-2016#1 pick, Derek Fisher-OF

If I were the Angels and the Astros offered me Altuve and Correa (and mind you Altuve still has two years on his old deal at $6M per season and Correa is under team control until after the 2021 season) I seriously consider that for Trout... Especially if Altuve agreed to say a 5 year extension.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

1B is absolutely the least important of the fielded positions.

Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, doesn’t like WAR?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ing-a-mini-war-on-war/?utm_term=.a5c3199a04ee

 

[MichaelWinicki]

NYY should go after Arrieta now that Ohtani is gone

3/36m should be close...... not interested in bringing CC back

Would also sign Matt Adams or Logan Morrison for 1b/DH

Try to trade Ellsbury and Headley for salary relief to get under Luxury Tax

Boy you think Arrieta would go for 3/36?

 

[Trouty]

If I were the Angels and the Astros offered me Altuve and Correa (and mind you Altuve still has two years on his old deal at $6M per season and Correa is under team control until after the 2021 season) I seriously consider that for Trout... Especially if Altuve agreed to say a 5 year extension.

We would also need, at the very least, your top 2 prospects. Angels don’t do that trade. Nor does HOU.

But yes, the AAV and term for both players are why HOU is one of the very few teams that have the pieces to land Trout (in a complete hypothetical world).

As you can see, and I don’t hide it, Trout is Superman in Anaheim.

The Angels decline that trade. Plus we have a great SS, we need more pieces to a trade like that. If we did that trade, one of Correa or Simba is getting traded for additional pieces. Or Correa moves to third. We obviously don’t waste Simba’s range moving him to third, if we kept both.