I would include the likes of Jackson and Herbert as elite. People always bring out the lack of success by the Chargers as a stick to hit Herbert with but the reality is there's only so much anyone could do with genuinely terrible coaching, an awful defense and a horrific o line.
Hurts got paid but he played to an elite level in a Superbowl so it's understandable.
We have seen teams have buyers remorse like the Cardinals with Murray, Cleveland with Watson, Broncos with Wilson etc.
I don't think the Dolphins pay Tua unless they have a very strong season. I think Lawrence will get paid as he is one of their best players. Goff will get paid to a Cousins type contract.
The Packers are probably happy for Love to have another strong season as that would put him towards the elite level and they pay him.
Anyone paying Prescott $55-$60 million will really regret the decision. I just hope it isn't the Cowboys.
For Herbert things like you listed are "reasons".
For Dak Prescott people here would call those same things "excuses". Dak did not have a great coach for four years with Jason Garrett (and some argue McCarthy) and certainly the Rod Marinelli defenses back then provided little support. Mahomes and Burrow led teams to the Super Bowl with a terrible or beat up offensive line; but how many of the league's 32 starting QB's are on their level?
Dak would have had a couple more playoff wins- like against the Packers his rookie year and the Rams in 2018- had the defense performed better. He was not the issue in those games. Now, he did not play well enough against the 49ers in 2021-22 and certainly not against Green Bay last year. But there were so many breakdowns elsewhere on the team it's hard to say if a better game by Dak would have even mattered anyway.
This is what makes it so hard to evaluate Dak. By all accounts statistically, he has been a top ten or even top 5 QB ever since the second half of the 2018 season. There have been times he has failed. There have been just as many times the Cowboys have failed him.
And if the Cowboys get rid of Dak next year the odds are heavily against them upgrading. Barring a complete implosion this season, the Cowboys are going to cave in and pay Dak. This is how they do business- sit around, wait and wait and wait, then end up overpaying.