New 4th and 15 onside kick rule?

[TWOK11]

Good data....thank you.

What I take from it is no way should it be 4th and 15 - the conversion rate is just way to much greater than an onside kick.

And there's no significant statistical difference between 4th and 20 and 4th and 25 so there's similarly no reason to go to 4th and 25. I agree, 4th and 20 seems to be the best choice. I could live with that.

The onside kick success rate under the old rules was about 20%, roughly the same as the NFL average for converting 3rd and 4th down when there is 15-20 yards Togo.

 

[Chuck 54]

Yes,it’s harder to convert an onside kick now, but from what I’ve seen watching games, the biggest problem is all the onsides attempts that have zero chance because the kickers suck at it. You seldom see the kicker even get the attempt 10 yards and still in play...pathetic.

Short of 10 yards
Out of bounds
Too far down field, like 15-20 yards for a fair catch

It’s really sad

 

[Diehardblues]

You think Aaron Rodgers, or any QB for that matter, could convert 15 yards in a single down 80% of the time?

Goodness how do some of you successfully dress yourselves every morning.

How often is Rodgers down 17 points with 5 minutes to play?

 

[JustChip]

The onside kick success rate under the old rules was about 20%, roughly the same as the NFL average for converting 3rd and 4th down when there is 15-20 yards Togo.

If that's the case, 4th and 15 is in line. Must be how they arrived at 4th and 15.

 

[Chuck 54]

If you really want the onside kick to have a chance, then ...

• You already made the kicking team line up in a normal alignment with equal guys on each side, so
• Make the receiving team line up normally in a receiving formation without everyone up close

It would be safe with fewer players involved in the play, and if the kickers learned how to execute the damn kick, a funky bounce would give both teams a fair shot at recovery, while making the play exciting to watch.

 

[Diehardblues]

If that's the case, 4th and 15 is in line. Must be how they arrived at 4th and 15.

I’d be more interested in how they arrived at 17 points being how far you must be behind for the opportunity?

Wonder what the percentage is for teams coming back from 17 down with 5 minutes to play?

 

[JustChip]

I’d be more interested in how they arrived at 17 points being how far you must be behind for the opportunity?

That is an interesting point. My guess is it's about the number of possessions needed - 16 points would make it a 2 possession game where 17 is at least 3.

 

[Diehardblues]

That is an interesting point. My guess is it's about the number of possessions needed - 16 points would make it a 2 possession game where 17 is at least 3.

The odds must be close to zero coming back from 17 points in final 5 minutes.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

My only concern in the “ comeback mechanic” which by the way is an excellent phrase is how it effects the point spreads.

Although it’s rare for NFL spreads to be more than 7 points it could effect the over/ unders but nevertheless I think Sportsbook would have some concerns.

I also think that while by no means is 4th and 15 easy, if you give a sharp offensive coordinator a chance to draw up a 4th and 15 that they sit on all year until they need it, the chance of conversion is going to jump to 50% or more.

 

[Diehardblues]

I also think that while by no means is 4th and 15 easy, if you give a sharp offensive coordinator a chance to draw up a 4th and 15 that they sit on all year until they need it, the chance of conversion is going to jump to 50% or more.

In most cases a team down by 17 points with 5 minutes left isn’t going to be a good offensive team or have an elite QB. Even if they convert and able to drive down the field they’ll still be down by 2 scores unable to go for it again after scoring.

In our 16 game schedule we only had two games which had the opportunity for such rule to come into play if someone had scored with 5 minutes left.

Sounds like a bunch of complaining over nothing that’s not going to impact except for a closer margin in result .

 

[Bizwah]

My biggest complaint would be for the defense. The offense would have a complete advantage in this situation. At the end of the game, the defense will be gassed.

 

[buybuydandavis]

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/24/john-mara-is-only-competition-committee-member-opposed-to-onside-kick-alternative/

This is a terrible idea, and Dallas would have a huge disadvantage if passed. This favors teams with elite quarterbacks HUGELY.

Imagine Aaron Rodgers against the Dolphins. He'd have a 80% chance of converting the inside kick. Lol

Special teams should determine onside kicks, not quarterbacks.

Bad idea.

“What are we, the Arena Football League?” Mara said of the rule.​

Moving to 7 on 7 flag football. No kicking. No special teams.

Maybe we'll play "make it take it" like the Pro Bowl to keep games close.

I wonder that is supposed to be gained by this besides making the game look even less like it used to.

 

[Diehardblues]

We had a 22nd ranked offense and 16th ranked QB and we were only down more than 17 points with 5 minutes to play once all year.

And in the one game we were leading by 17 or more with 5 minutes I doubt the outcome changes over Jaguars leading 40-7.

 

[Runwildboys]

I never like the onside kick to begin with. It's a situation in which the team that outscored the other team can't gain anything. The desperate team either converts, or they're in the same position they would have been in, minus some yardage.

 

[Bizwah]

I've read the rule a few times. I've seen nothing that says you have to be down 17 points.

The link above says in the fourth quarter, the team can do this one time.

 

[Runwildboys]

If Gronk is healthy the Pats may never have to play a single down on defense.

Gronk announced that he's retiring.

 

[Flamma]

You can tell by the rule changes the past few years that they are slowly getting rid of kickoffs. It's the most dangerous (top speed, high collisions) play in the football.
One, there are NFL people who generally care about players welfare and want to make the game safer. Two, from a legal standpoint, it shows the league is taking real steps to reduce opportunities for concussions.

Mark my words, within 10 years the kickoff will be gone, and kids will not play tackle football until 12, possibly high school age. It's the only way football will survive.

I agree. But by fixing one problem they create another. Tamper with the kickoff and mess up the onsides kick. Remove the kickoff and they'll have to resort to a gimmick for an onsides kick. Yeah that's progress.

Speaking of kids playing football. I played high school football. But I played a lot more sandlot football. It was sandlot football that was much tougher. Any injuries and both of my concussions came from sandlot football. Organized high school football in pads was tame in comparison.

 

[_sturt_]

If you really want the onside kick to have a chance, then ...

• You already made the kicking team line up in a normal alignment with equal guys on each side, so
• Make the receiving team line up normally in a receiving formation without everyone up close

It would be safe with fewer players involved in the play, and if the kickers learned how to execute the damn kick, a funky bounce would give both teams a fair shot at recovery, while making the play exciting to watch.

I see that as an option, but probably one that lends itself to the receiving team probably at a greater disadvantage than the kicking team... and even if not, at least at a greater disadvantage than they were under the traditional rule.

 

[_sturt_]

I never like the onside kick to begin with. It's a situation in which the team that outscored the other team can't gain anything. The desperate team either converts, or they're in the same position they would have been in, minus some yardage.

Maybe so, but it's been a part of the game for all our lives, and added some legitimate drama to the end of games on occasion. If you can find that sweet spot rule that allows something similar in terms of outcomes, it's very much worth saving, imo.

 

[Diehardblues]

I've read the rule a few times. I've seen nothing that says you have to be down 17 points.

The link above says in the fourth quarter, the team can do this one time.

The 17 points is what the Alliance league is using and what most have said the NFL would adopt with 5 minutes remaining . Here’s the link I was using as reference.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...nge-that-competition-committee-seems-to-like/