RUMOR: Norm Hitzges: Chiefs interested in trading LJ to Cowboys?

[theogt]

I believe Cleveland's pick will be in the top 10. Their defense will not stop anyone this year. Jamal Lewis, another big pounder, appears to be done after that 2000 yard season.

Dallas may be in a position to move down a little and still draft McFadden. Arkansas is losing three starting o-linemen. Their quarterback can't do anything but throw the ball deep. He can't complete an intermediate pass. The elite defenses in the SEC are going to gang up on the run and make running the football difficult for McFadden and Felix Jones. Arkansas' coach is on the hot seat, and they are probably looking at losses when they play Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU. Also, Arkansas lost their two best players on defense.

I had no idea the SEC wasn't doing everything they possibly could to stop him in '06. Did he really catch LSU by surprise in late November when he put up 182 yards on them in 21 carries?

 

[28 Joker]

They were not over looking him. He didn't catch anyone by surprise. However, this year should be much more difficult for McFadden. LSU, Auburn, Alabamba, and Tennessee are bringing very good fronts back while Arkansas must break in three new offensive linemen. This doesn't bode well for their running game or McFadden's draft stock. These teams will be out for revenge this year. Payback is not fun in the SEC.

I do think Auburn disrespected Arkansas and over looked them, and they were drilled for doing so. Tennessee was weak up front against them without Harrell in the middle. However, LSU was loaded up front, and they had Landry playing up close. It didn't matter. Florida had the most success against him. He may have worn down. They have a third back that not many people know about, he was torching their defense in the spring game. I hope he gets carries, because McFadden is a marked man going into his third season.

Here is McFadden's numbers vs the top D's in the SEC:

Alabama 25-112-1 4.5 LG: 29
Auburn 28-145-1 5.2 LG: 63
South C. 25-219-2 8.8 LG: 43
Tenn. 30-181-2 6.0 LG: 37
LSU 21-182-2 8.7 LG: 80
Florida 21- 73-0 3.5 LG: 15

 

[28 Joker]

In 2005, Arkansas played SEC champion Georgia in Athens. Look at this:

31-190-2 LG: 70 6.1


2005: Southern Cal

13-88-0 LG: 14 6.5

Might as well throw those out there. I am not even an Arkansas fan.

 

[mmillman]

running backs aren't getting that kind of trade value anymore.

 

[mmohican29]

no offense to MBIII who I think is terrific: but LJ is a rare breed of horse. If the Chiefs are willing to trade LJ for JJ and a 1st rounder, do it. Keep in mind we are not pressed at RB really, and McFadden and Slaton are on the board for us to grab next year.

 

[Idgit]

Here's the Football Outsiders article I think about when a RB's carries are mentioned:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2004/07/25/ramblings/stat-analysis/236/

Last year's load is the number one reason for being skeptical of a blockbuster trade for LJ.

My problem with waiting for (a shot at) McFadden is that we lose a year where we're a legitimate contender. TO and Glenn aren't going to be here forever, and although our running game averaged out pretty well last year, we didn't seem to be a team that was successful converting on obvious rushing downs.

If you can add a player like LJ at a time when TO changes the way defenses have to play us, you have to consider it. One more Lombardi would make dealing with the cap problems in a few years well worth it. I also think KC is in a position where they are going to have to make a below-market trade all things (including cap ramifications for his new contract) considered. For MBIII and a 2nd this trade would be a steal.

 

[peplaw06]

He is 28 years old. ( I don't really care if he didn't touch the ball much early on in his career) Per this past season (minus playoffs) he carried the ball 416 times and caught the ball 41, and the season before that he carried the ball 336 times and caught the ball 33 times. In two seasons the guy has touched the ball 826 times, not to mention that he stands upright when he goes through the hole and is tackled. LJ could break down as soon as next season. So could any player, but him moreso by taking all those touches

Like you say, any player can break down at any time. It's impossible to predict. You can't predict it by number of touches. If there was some magic number of touches that no NFL player can handle, do you really think these guys would be touching the ball that much?

LT has touched the ball 35 times less over the past 2 seasons, and he's not a physically imposing as LJ. He takes more punishment than he inflicts... LJ hands out punishment more often. So doesn't that cut toward LT getting injured? I hope he doesn't because I own him in fantasy football... but I'm definitely not gonna go making predictions of injury simply because he's touched the ball a lot. It's impossible to predict.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

I believe Cleveland's pick will be in the top 10. Their defense will not stop anyone this year. Jamal Lewis, another big pounder, appears to be done after that 2000 yard season.

Dallas may be in a position to move down a little and still draft McFadden. Arkansas is losing three starting o-linemen. Their quarterback can't do anything but throw the ball deep. He can't complete an intermediate pass. The elite defenses in the SEC are going to gang up on the run and make running the football difficult for McFadden and Felix Jones. Arkansas' coach is on the hot seat, and they are probably looking at losses when they play Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU. Also, Arkansas lost their two best players on defense.

Why does this matter? There isn't going to be any Heisman Trophy. McFadden will probably see his stock fall some. He has a bizar off the field incident that teams will look into. McFadden should go about where Adrian Peterson went in the draft. If he is in striking range, we could trade down a little or bundle picks to get him. This guy is a speed demon, and he is big and strong. He might blow it up at the combine and make my points null and void. Only time will tell. He can fly.

Don't under-estimate this player. Hershel Walker, Bo Jackson, Emmitt Smith, Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry, Fred Taylor, and Terrell Davis all played in the SEC. McFadden is a monster; he is the most dynamic back to play in the SEC since Walker, Jackson, and Smith.

I like the production of Barber and Jones, and they don't cost a mint. Hostile makes logical or solid points. Barber can punish those defenses in the 4th quarter just as much as Larry Johnson can. Remember the Carolina and Atlanta games. We have a very young team that is learning new systems on both sides of the ball. Dallas doesn't need to take the short-term gratification route by adding Larry Johnson. Dallas just needs to stick to their plan and keep improving on both sides of the ball. We are in the NFC for crying out loud.

Johnson takes too many hits. (See: Jamal Lewis) For Dallas, LJ would be like a good looking used car. It might run good for 3 or 4 year, but it will break down sooner than later. New England won three Super Bowls without a back in Larry Johnson's class. He isn't worth the money. However, if I can draft McFadden, he's a Cowboy. He has freakish talent, and he will be young. McFadden runs to daylight just like Tomlinson does, and he will avoid many hits because of his pure speed. The defenses in the SEC couldn't stop him. You have to watch the elite defenses in the SEC play to understand the magnitude of what McFadden has done to them. If McFadden is within the Cowboys' reach, Jerry Jones will do everything he can to put the star on his helmet. Mark it down!

Very good points....nice post.

 

[Hostile]

running backs aren't getting that kind of trade value anymore.

Short, to the point, and on the :money:

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Like you say, any player can break down at any time. It's impossible to predict. You can't predict it by number of touches. If there was some magic number of touches that no NFL player can handle, do you really think these guys would be touching the ball that much?

LT has touched the ball 35 times less over the past 2 seasons, and he's not a physically imposing as LJ. He takes more punishment than he inflicts... LJ hands out punishment more often. So doesn't that cut toward LT getting injured? I hope he doesn't because I own him in fantasy football... but I'm definitely not gonna go making predictions of injury simply because he's touched the ball a lot. It's impossible to predict.

To be honest, while I think LT is a great back, I don't know that I would sign him to the contract San Diego signed him to either, if I had to do it right now. I do think LT is the best player in the NFL but RBs are just very suseptable to reaching a point in there career where there body can't do it. You don't know when that will be but the trend is that RBs wear down quicker then most other players. You don't see a lot of backs like Emmitt who last 15 years. Invest in OL and keep bringing good young RBs into the mix is how I'd probably look at it. Unless you know your getting a Sweetness or a Sanders or an Emmitt, I think you gotta protect yourself by keeping multiple good young backs ready to play. JMO but I do think there is some historical basis for this position.

 

[Vintage]

To be honest, while I think LT is a great back, I don't know that I would sign him to the contract San Diego signed him to either, if I had to do it right now. I do think LT is the best player in the NFL but RBs are just very suseptable to reaching a point in there career where there body can't do it. You don't know when that will be but the trend is that RBs wear down quicker then most other players. You don't see a lot of backs like Emmitt who last 15 years. Invest in OL and keep bringing good young RBs into the mix is how I'd probably look at it. Unless you know your getting a Sweetness or a Sanders or an Emmitt, I think you gotta protect yourself by keeping multiple good young backs ready to play. JMO but I do think there is some historical basis for this position.

What a self fulfilling prophecy.

Unless you know you are getting a....., you wouldn't do it.

Well, there is no way to know.

So what would you have done at the time Emmitt held out and wanted to get paid?


Secondly, San Diego couldn't just let LT go. If they didn't pay him that money, someone else would have. And Turner isn't Tomlinson, so they'd be worse off. And for a team that is trying to win a Super Bowl, I fail to see how letting a premier talent go is anything remotely resembling "smart."

 

[Hostile]

What a self fulfilling prophecy.

Unless you know you are getting a....., you wouldn't do it.

Well, there is no way to know.

So what would you have done at the time Emmitt held out and wanted to get paid?


Secondly, San Diego couldn't just let LT go. If they didn't pay him that money, someone else would have. And Turner isn't Tomlinson, so they'd be worse off. And for a team that is trying to win a Super Bowl, I fail to see how letting a premier talent go is anything remotely resembling "smart."

I personally would have paid him. To this day I can't figure out what Jerry was hoping to accomplish. I've often wondered if that contract dispute was the beginning of the troubles that split him and Jimmy.

One question, are the Chiefs not trying to win a Super Bowl this year?

 

[Vintage]

I personally would have paid him. To this day I can't figure out what Jerry was hoping to accomplish. I've often wondered if that contract dispute was the beginning of the troubles that split him and Jimmy.

One question, are the Chiefs not trying to win a Super Bowl this year?

I would say they are in rebuild mode. They might disagree (or they might agree and not admit to it publically). But going with Croyle, a crumbling OL, old CBs, a poor secondary in general......and in the AFC West, if they make the playoffs, I'd be amazed. And I think their management probably knows this.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

What a self fulfilling prophecy.

Unless you know you are getting a....., you wouldn't do it.

Well, there is no way to know.

So what would you have done at the time Emmitt held out and wanted to get paid?


Secondly, San Diego couldn't just let LT go. If they didn't pay him that money, someone else would have. And Turner isn't Tomlinson, so they'd be worse off. And for a team that is trying to win a Super Bowl, I fail to see how letting a premier talent go is anything remotely resembling "smart."

First of all, I said right now in regards to LT. Read the post. Secondly, we're not San Diego. Our offense is not predicated on a single player producing for a reason. Get it? Larry Johnson, IMO, is not going to last 10 years in the NFL as a starter. Find anybody who thinks so and I'll be impressed. The contract Johnson is looking for, according to reports, is a deal simular to LTs. That deal was an 8 year 60 million dollar deal if I'm not mistaken. That's just too much invested in a guy I don't believe is going to play another 5 good years in the NFL. I think 4 years maybe but not more. If you think it's wise to throw big money at players in order to win championships, that's fine but let me just say that I don't believe the club will do that. We've tried it in the past and we payed for it. Still paying for it, in fact.

 

[montgod]

Such a bogus trade rumor. Last time I checked, Wade and Garrett are still caucasian/white.

 

[Vintage]

First of all, I said right now in regards to LT. Read the post. Secondly, we're not San Diego. Our offense is not predicated on a single player producing for a reason. Get it? Larry Johnson, IMO, is not going to last 10 years in the NFL as a starter. Find anybody who thinks so and I'll be impressed. The contract Johnson is looking for, according to reports, is a deal simular to LTs. That deal was an 8 year 60 million dollar deal if I'm not mistaken. That's just too much invested in a guy I don't believe is going to play another 5 good years in the NFL. I think 4 years maybe but not more. If you think it's wise to throw big money at players in order to win championships, that's fine but let me just say that I don't believe the club will do that. We've tried it in the past and we payed for it. Still paying for it, in fact.

A deal similar to that.... doesn't mean he is looking for an 8 year deal.

Sign him to a 6 year deal with the same averages....If he plays only 4 more great years, you can always cut him after that and not suffer too much.

Or you could keep him an extra year at him being in decline, but probably still better than anyone else on our roster and cut him after that (year 5) and have 1 year of signing bonus hit on the cap. Hardly a big deal at that point.

As for the single player not the entire offense crap..... so?

What does that have to do with anything in regards to us acquiring him? Would he help us and improve our RB position? Yes.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I would say they are in rebuild mode. They might disagree (or they might agree and not admit to it publically). But going with Croyle, a crumbling OL, old CBs, a poor secondary in general......and in the AFC West, if they make the playoffs, I'd be amazed. And I think their management probably knows this.

The two back approach is better IMO. Had we not had Barbar and Jones, what happens when Jones is out? Those two backs have done well for us together. I don't see the reasoning behind giving away picks, players and awarding a huge cap number to somebody who is likely to produce less then he did the year before. On the other hand, you keep MB and JJ and chances are good that they are actually going to continue to improve. I'm not for trading for LJ under the terms I understand them to be.

 

[Vintage]

The two back approach is better IMO. Had we not had Barbar and Jones, what happens when Jones is out? Those two backs have done well for us together. I don't see the reasoning behind giving away picks, players and awarding a huge cap number to somebody who is likely to produce less then he did the year before. On the other hand, you keep MB and JJ and chances are good that they are actually going to continue to improve. I'm not for trading for LJ under the terms I understand them to be.

I'd take Emmitt and (name any backup RB, I don't care) over Jones and Barber anyday.

I don't care if Barber is more talented than random backup. Because I am giving the ball to Emmitt 25 carries per game. I'd rather have an elite back carrying the rock 25 times per game with a bad backup getting under 5 touches than a mediocre RB getting 15 touches and a good BACKUP RB getting 10 touches per game.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

A deal similar to that.... doesn't mean he is looking for an 8 year deal.

Sign him to a 6 year deal with the same averages....If he plays only 4 more great years, you can always cut him after that and not suffer too much.

Or you could keep him an extra year at him being in decline, but probably still better than anyone else on our roster and cut him after that (year 5) and have 1 year of signing bonus hit on the cap. Hardly a big deal at that point.

As for the single player not the entire offense crap..... so?

What does that have to do with anything in regards to us acquiring him? Would he help us and improve our RB position? Yes.

A deal simular to that would suggest that he wants just that. A deal simular to the one LT got. There is no reason to think that he's going to sign a 6 year deal friendly to the club. Get real. This guy is looking to get paid because he too knows that his shelf life is limited. He's even said as much publically.

The statement you make on Johnson helping us and improving our RB position is relative. He may but it's not a given. There is no guarante he will come back stronger then he was last year. There is also no guarante that Jones and Barbar will not improve on there performances from last year. I am not in favor of paying huge money on bad contracts to players who may provide only a minimul improvement, if at all. It's not good business sense IMO. I am not for it.

 

[Doomsday101]

I'd take Emmitt and (name any backup RB, I don't care) over Jones and Barber anyday.

I don't care if Barber is more talented than random backup. Because I am giving the ball to Emmitt 25 carries per game. I'd rather have an elite back carrying the rock 25 times per game with a bad backup getting under 5 touches than a mediocre RB getting 15 touches and a good BACKUP RB getting 10 touches per game.

I agree. This franchise has seen great success from having elite RB's and I'll take a great back any day over 2 avg RB. If Dallas were to get a guy like Johnson I don't know if I would want to work him as hard as KC does with over 400 carries last season.