Speculation: FSU and Clemson to big 12?

[jterrell]

Oh, I understand Texas wants to host Notre Dame because it's more money for them. But the question is how does ND profit? Does Texas plan on paying them to play them every year?

Why would ND feel they need to lock themselves into UT over, say, Alabama, LSU or Florida State?

You clearly have zero idea how this works.

Short answer is games in Austin pay Notre Dame more.
Longer answer is Dodds and Swarbrick are friends.

ND just sided with the Big 12 and SEC on BCS playoff proposals in Chicago(broke tie at expense of B1G and Pac12). ND is very much aligned with UT.

Alabama has no reason to chase ND (they already sell out every game). And ND no reason to play games against the world's best college football team versus one of the rowdier home crowds.

ND wants to recruit in Texas! That is a large piece of the equation. Money, recruiting and television buddies make UT very powerful. As does having the richest athletic program.

If anything UT has too much influence. That's why Nebraska. TAMU and Missou left. Colorado simply wanted to head west ASAP and did so when the chance arose. They recruit California much moreso than Texas. UT's influence was negated a bit because of the grant of rights. That means UT can't do more than cast a single vote and wave money around. But that money waving with ND is working. The big 12 believes the agreements are basically in place. We'll see if they get shafted a la the Big East or not but it quite possible ND will be playing 5 or 6 games against Big 12 schools by 2014.
And if they do no one will be shocked if UT finds a way to make that game a yearly event on Thanksgiving night right after the NFL games are over.

 

[jterrell]

Good question.
Just curious; seeing that UT sells outs all of its games and has TV rights locked up in the near term, could they even increase revenue above what they already get?
I assume they could, but not sure

Yes!
Getting a game on ESPN Thanksgiving night between these two schools will net a ton of money for both schools. More money than many colleges have as their entire budget.

The game could be farmed out to the highest bidder, a la, Jerry Jones. (((Tho Cowboys play home games that day as well so perhaps another major site gets it unless the game is played on Friday like the UT-TAMU games were)))

The revenue possibility is really insane.

 

[Rogah]

You clearly have zero idea how this works.

Which clearly is still a better idea than you, considering the frequency of erroneous statements you've made on this subject.

ND just sided with the Big 12 and SEC on BCS playoff proposals in Chicago(broke tie at expense of B1G and Pac12). ND is very much aligned with UT.

What has that got to do with all the tea in China?

Alabama has no reason to chase ND (they already sell out every game). And ND no reason to play games against the world's best college football team versus one of the rowdier home crowds.

So they'll settle for perennial lightweight Texas? Yeah, you got me there.

ND wants to recruit in Texas! That is a large piece of the equation. Money, recruiting and television buddies make UT very powerful. As does having the richest athletic program.

ND also wants to recruit in the southeast and the west coast and the Great Lakes and the northeast and the midwest and the northern plains and the east coast and the southwest.

And if they do no one will be shocked if UT finds a way to make that game a yearly event on Thanksgiving night right after the NFL games are over.

If you had any idea what you were talking about, you'd know that Notre Dame already has a game scheduled for Thanksgiving weekend during seasons they play USC on the road (which is even numbered seasons) and they've done that for about 60 years (with 1 or 2 exceptions). But sure. They're going to throw away 60 years worth of tradition versus USC to play Texas every year and show up when they're told to.

Fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is going to be playing Texas several times in the coming years. But don't hold your breath waiting for it to become an annual tradition.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Texas does want to make the ND game the annual Thanksgiving Day game. Of that, there is no question. Would ND do it, I don't know? What JT is saying is 100% accurate. However, it's far from a done deal. In order for ND to enter into an agreement with Texas to make that an annual game, and believe me, it does represent much more money for ND, they would first have to wait for the current Stanford agreement (which is the other team they play on Thanksgiving in alternate years) to expire. Secondly, they would have to end their agreement with USC (not impossible, TAMU just ended a tradition that went for over 100 years with Texas so it can happen). Lastly, this is about money and an annual game against Texas on Thanksgiving would be more lucrative then would a bi-annual game against Notre Dame, Stanford on alternating years. The reason ND started playing these games against USC and Stanford was to get exposure in California for recruiting purposes. Now, Texas is a better recruiting opportunity and ND could still play SC or Stanford and continue to get exposure in California but if they don't play Texas annually, then they don't get what is important to them, which is recruiting in Texas. If ND has had a problem in recent years, it's recruiting talent. If ND wants to get back in the mix on a National level, they need to get access to Texas recruits IMO. While they would like to recruit in the SEC, the opportunity is there to recruit in Texas and it's not in the SEC. You can ask, why not Bama or LSU of FSU but the reality is that you do deals with people you can work with and ND can work with Texas. That's why this deal is much more doable IMO. The real question is not if ND would consider an annual game with Texas on Thanksgiving, IMO. The real question is, does ND want to schedule a USC, a Michigan and a Texas all in the same year?


Now, one way that I could see ND getting access to the SEC and to Texas recruiting might be to schedule TAMU annually and that would be a twist. TAMU is not marquee in the SEC like some of the other schools would be but they are in the SEC, they are used to playing games on Thanksgiving and they do provide access to Texas. The other thing is that TAMU would probably jump at that chance because they would do just about anything to be the fly in the Texas ointment.

Now that would be a twist. :laugh2:

 

[jterrell]

Which clearly is still a better idea than you, considering the frequency of erroneous statements you've made on this subject.
What has that got to do with all the tea in China?
So they'll settle for perennial lightweight Texas? Yeah, you got me there.
ND also wants to recruit in the southeast and the west coast and the Great Lakes and the northeast and the midwest and the northern plains and the east coast and the southwest.
If you had any idea what you were talking about, you'd know that Notre Dame already has a game scheduled for Thanksgiving weekend during seasons they play USC on the road (which is even numbered seasons) and they've done that for about 60 years (with 1 or 2 exceptions). But sure. They're going to throw away 60 years worth of tradition versus USC to play Texas every year and show up when they're told to.

Fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is going to be playing Texas several times in the coming years. But don't hold your breath waiting for it to become an annual tradition.

You haven't posted anything close to accurate in this entire thread.

ND needs to recruit Texas. If they can recruit Texas they don't need to recruit nationally to win.

Georgia had 2 top 10 seasons of recent note. With a Texas QB.
Alabama won titles with phenomenal recruiting but they also has a Texas QB starting for a while.
LSU always has some Texans, like Mike Brockers. OU recruits Texas like crazy. OSU....

You don't win titles without Texas players, period.

When Notre Dame was competing for national titles they had Texas recruits. Now they don't recruit Texas worth anything and they lose ... a lot.

Notre Dame has history with everyone they play. USC is a good rival for them in the sense they do like recruiting California. Would they set that game aside or move that game to play UT? Very possible. Especially if UT can barter with a place for Olympic sports and associate membership.

This is all about money and UT makes more than anyone which is why Notre Dame is in routine conversation with them. That and the fact the BCS drama is scaring them toward need to be in a big 4 conference. The new BCS announced June 26th will have a SOS component that plays a large role in determining rank. Notre Dame can't continue to play service academies, Purdue, Temple or Rutgers. The Big 12 had 6 top 15 teams last season. That's the kind of (SEC style) schedule that puts you in the BCS even with 1 loss. Right now Notre Dame has zero shot with 1 loss and may not make it in going undefeated.

 

[jterrell]

Texas does want to make the ND game the annual Thanksgiving Day game. Of that, there is no question. Would ND do it, I don't know? What JT is saying is 100% accurate. However, it's far from a done deal. In order for ND to enter into an agreement with Texas to make that an annual game, and believe me, it does represent much more money for ND, they would first have to wait for the current Stanford agreement (which is the other team they play on Thanksgiving in alternate years) to expire. Secondly, they would have to end their agreement with USC (not impossible, TAMU just ended a tradition that went for over 100 years with Texas so it can happen). Lastly, this is about money and an annual game against Texas on Thanksgiving would be more lucrative then would a bi-annual game against Notre Dame, Stanford on alternating years. The reason ND started playing these games against USC and Stanford was to get exposure in California for recruiting purposes. Now, Texas is a better recruiting opportunity and ND could still play SC or Stanford and continue to get exposure in California but if they don't play Texas annually, then they don't get what is important to them, which is recruiting in Texas. If ND has had a problem in recent years, it's recruiting talent. If ND wants to get back in the mix on a National level, they need to get access to Texas recruits IMO. While they would like to recruit in the SEC, the opportunity is there to recruit in Texas and it's not in the SEC. You can ask, why not Bama or LSU of FSU but the reality is that you do deals with people you can work with and ND can work with Texas. That's why this deal is much more doable IMO. The real question is not if ND would consider an annual game with Texas on Thanksgiving, IMO. The real question is, does ND want to schedule a USC, a Michigan and a Texas all in the same year?


Now, one way that I could see ND getting access to the SEC and to Texas recruiting might be to schedule TAMU annually and that would be a twist. TAMU is not marquee in the SEC like some of the other schools would be but they are in the SEC, they are used to playing games on Thanksgiving and they do provide access to Texas. The other thing is that TAMU would probably jump at that chance because they would do just about anything to be the fly in the Texas ointment.

Now that would be a twist. :laugh2:

We are on the same page here. The WVA folks think Notre Dame is heinously overrated in all ways. After all they joined the Big East for all but football and it went to pot. I sense they are probably right. ND joining is a double-edged sword. SWC like recruiting of Texas isn't good for the Big 12 at all.

End of the day FSU and Clemson getting in the Big 12 is most plausible. Going 12.5 with ND is very realistic but certainly not a done deal. ND would benefit from the move but they aren't hurting now (except losing far too much). FSU and Clemson are hurting thus have major motivation. Competing with SEC dollars won't happen in that ACC contract. The Big 12 has an SEC like deal and it will only grow not shrink.

The TAMU thing would be a consideration but TAMU doesn't own their own 3rd tier rights. That's the real reason SEC clubs don't have the room to negotiate that UT does. SEC schools can pay for gates and hand over tickets to be sold but they can't offer up tv money. UT/B12 can. Advantage by a country mile: Big 12 schools. For instance if Texas Tech wanted to entice Notre Dame into playing them it could offer up those rights for the game back to Notre Dame for a small fee while agree to meeting in Cowboys Stadium. ND would make millions on such a deal. Much more than they'll make from playing Arizona State in Dallas this year.


Stanford and USC are quality, quality programs in a great recruiting state. But they also signed away 3rd tier rights. So one of the few ways they can make more money is by ND handing them cash to move games to a different week in the schedule. But again, that game hitting Thanksgiving doesn't have to happen right away. OR at all. But it is certainly being discussed. How does the Pac 12 feel about that? The B1G? The Big 12 and SEC hold the cards right now and the 3rd tier rights as I mentioned over a year ago amid a chorus of laughs was a key for any mutual B12 interest in Notre Dame.

 

[Rogah]

You haven't posted anything close to accurate in this entire thread.

Sure thing, Mr. "Texas and Notre Dame are going to start playing each other on Thanksgiving Night even though Notre Dame already has a 60+ year tradition of playing USC that weekend during the years USC hosts the game" - a tradition you were obviously completely unaware of.

 

[Aikbach]

Expansion seems inevitable, especially since the SEC and Big 12 have effectively partnered up to corner the most intriguing bowl potential.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

The TAMU thing would be a consideration but TAMU doesn't own their own 3rd tier rights. That's the real reason SEC clubs don't have the room to negotiate that UT does. SEC schools can pay for gates and hand over tickets to be sold but they can't offer up tv money. UT/B12 can. Advantage by a country mile: Big 12 schools. For instance if Texas Tech wanted to entice Notre Dame into playing them it could offer up those rights for the game back to Notre Dame for a small fee while agree to meeting in Cowboys Stadium. ND would make millions on such a deal. Much more than they'll make from playing Arizona State in Dallas this year.

I too think the writing is on the wall, so to speak. I agree with you on the TV Rights. The Big 12, for specifically that reason, has always been the one Conference that had any real chance of bringing in ND IMO. Said this years ago and I suspect that this is exactly why the Big 12 was set up to operate in such a manner. I do think that Texas and the Big 12 have been trying to bring in ND from the very start. Will it happen? I don't know but if it doesn't, it won't be from lack of effort on the Big 12s part. The TAMU thing could work but it would have to be a deal where TAMU and ND schedule each other outside of conference. ND will never join the SEC for all the reason you mention and because they do not want to share their own TV profits but that doesn't mean that TAMU would not be interested IMO. I think they would probably break their own arms (TAMU) patting themselves on the back if they were able to pull that off. That would make the whole move to the SEC worth wild in their eyes I think. :laugh2:

 

[DFWJC]

I too think the writing is on the wall, so to speak. I agree with you on the TV Rights. The Big 12, for specifically that reason, has always been the one Conference that had any real chance of bringing in ND IMO. Said this years ago and I suspect that this is exactly why the Big 12 was set up to operate in such a manner. I do think that Texas and the Big 12 have been trying to bring in ND from the very start. Will it happen? I don't know but if it doesn't, it won't be from lack of effort on the Big 12s part. The TAMU thing could work but it would have to be a deal where TAMU and ND schedule each other outside of conference. ND will never join the SEC for all the reason you mention and because they do not want to share their own TV profits but that doesn't mean that TAMU would not be interested IMO. I think they would probably break their own arms (TAMU) patting themselves on the back if they were able to pull that off. That would make the whole move to the SEC worth wild in their eyes I think. :laugh2:

I always thought it was odd that all the Big 12 members would cry like newborns over Texas taking advantage of TV rights that each and every other team had in the conference. Now those rights are massive advantage for the Big12.

All that whining never made sense.

Having said that, I could never blame TAMU for going to the SEC. I mean, it is the SEC.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I always thought it was odd that all the Big 12 members would cry like newborns over Texas taking advantage of TV rights that each and every other team had in the conference. Now those rights are massive advantage for the Big12.

All that whining never made sense.

Having said that, I could never blame TAMU for going to the SEC. I mean, it is the SEC.

Good observations DFWJC. If ND does join the Big 12, it will be because of those 3rd tier rights, I agree.

TAMU, I don't really blame them either. I think it's funny that they made such a stink over TEXAS jumping conferences and then went and did it themselves but whatever. It would have been the same thing either way IMO. I wish them luck. I'd like to see them in the Big12/SEC matchup maybe. It's unfortunate that over a hundred years of tradition has gone away but you can't live life in the past. Good luck to them, we have our own issues to work out.

 

[DFWJC]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ces-likely-to-receive-most-of-playoff-revenue

I'm attaching an article discussing revenue and credits. The "Fab Five" conferences are listed as SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Pac 12.....with a huge dropoff after those 5.
---------------------
BTW

Based on performance since the BCS was formed (1998 until now) and giving credit to each conference based on the membership it will have beginning in 2014 (so WVu would count for Big 12) this is how they stack up:

Here are the cumulative points per conference (based on 2014 membership) compiled by CBSSports.com for the top 25 final BCS rankings since 1998. Each first-place finish is worth 25 points down to one point for a 25th-place finish.

1. SEC 1,054
2. Big Ten 860
3. Big 12 816
4. ACC 673
5. Pac-12 671
6. Big East 240
7. Notre Dame 73
8. C-USA 49
9. MWC 48
10. BYU 45
11. MAC 21
12. Sun Belt 0
(tie) WAC 0

Here are the number of teams per conference (based on 2014 membership) compiled by CBSSports.com in the top 25 final BCS rankings since 1998.
1. SEC 78
2. Big Ten 66
3. ACC 57
4. Big 12 56
5. Pac-12 49
6. Big East 24
7. MWC 6
(tie) BYU 6
9. C-USA 5
(tie) Notre Dame 5
11. MAC 3
12. Sun Belt 0
(tie) WAC 0

 

[jterrell]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ces-likely-to-receive-most-of-playoff-revenue

I'm attaching an article discussing revenue and credits. The "Fab Five" conferences are listed as SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Pac 12.....with a huge dropoff after those 5.
---------------------
BTW

Based on performance since the BCS was formed (1998 until now) and giving credit to each conference based on the membership it will have beginning in 2014 (so WVu would count for Big 12) this is how they stack up:

Here are the cumulative points per conference (based on 2014 membership) compiled by CBSSports.com for the top 25 final BCS rankings since 1998. Each first-place finish is worth 25 points down to one point for a 25th-place finish.

1. SEC 1,054
2. Big Ten 860
3. Big 12 816
4. ACC 673
5. Pac-12 671
6. Big East 240
7. Notre Dame 73
8. C-USA 49
9. MWC 48
10. BYU 45
11. MAC 21
12. Sun Belt 0
(tie) WAC 0

Here are the number of teams per conference (based on 2014 membership) compiled by CBSSports.com in the top 25 final BCS rankings since 1998.
1. SEC 78
2. Big Ten 66
3. ACC 57
4. Big 12 56
5. Pac-12 49
6. Big East 24
7. MWC 6
(tie) BYU 6
9. C-USA 5
(tie) Notre Dame 5
11. MAC 3
12. Sun Belt 0
(tie) WAC 0

noteworthy additions: big 12 has only 10 teams, sec has 14.
if you add fsu and clemson to the b12 as it expected the b12 becomes the top conference in results and the ACC falls apart.

 

[jterrell]

Sure thing, Mr. "Texas and Notre Dame are going to start playing each other on Thanksgiving Night even though Notre Dame already has a 60+ year tradition of playing USC that weekend during the years USC hosts the game" - a tradition you were obviously completely unaware of.

take deep breaths so the oxygen makes it to your brain.

we are discussing an item under consideration.
it IS very much under consideration and has been reported by many sources.
the sources have been linked many times in this thread.

the things i have suggested on realignment for the past year + are happening with painfully slow but very accurate strokes.

you, on the other hand, are lazy offal giving us your opinion based on history.
ask tamu about history!

this is a business and it is about money.

as to notre dame specifically they see the need for change that i described 18 months ago on this forum. they need to widen recruiting into texas and preferably florida so they can win nationally. when they win they become the single biggest brand in college athletics by a country mile. but losing erodes that brand and thus makes them less valuable.

The latest report from Tuxedo Yoda (twitter) suggests 3 different sources he has state ND WILL play 6 games versus Big 12 comp as early as 2014. He isn't positive but believes those games will be versus big-name big 12 teams and not wholly rotational. He suggests UT and FSU will play ND yearly in predetermined big-game weekends quite possibly at major neutral sites in Texas/Florida. This brings in max dollars and also gives ND best recruiting coverage possible.

 

[DFWJC]

noteworthy additions: big 12 has only 10 teams, sec has 14.
if you add fsu and clemson to the b12 as it expected the b12 becomes the top conference in results and the ACC falls apart.

No it's not.:laugh2:
Come on jt. This is pure speculation at this point at best.

I won't say never, but I still say the odds are against both FSU and Clemson leaving the ACC for the Big 12.

It could happen, but you seem to think this thing is a lock and you vastly underrate the ACC overall as a sports/academic league. It's all knee-jerk short term vision

How they frame the playoff will have a lot to do with this outcome, so we'll see.

Here is a quick run down of that committee:

• Scott Cowen - President, Tulane University
• Rev. John Jenkins - President, University of Notre Dame
• Bernie Machen - President, University of Florida
• Max Nikias - President, University of Southern California
• Duane Nellis - President, University of Idaho
• Harvey Perlman - Chancellor, University of Nebraska
• John G. Peters - President, Northern Illinois University
• Bill Powers - President, University of Texas
• James Ramsey - President, University of Louisville
• Gary Ransdell - President, Western Kentucky University
• Charles W. Steger (chair) - President, Virginia Tech
• John Welty - President, Fresno State

 

[jterrell]

No it's not.:laugh2:
Come on jt. This is pure speculation at this point at best.

I won't say never, but I still say the odds are against both FSU and Clemson leaving the ACC for the Big 12.

It could happen, but you seem to think this thing is a lock and you vastly underrate the ACC overall as a sports/academic league. It's all knee-jerk short term vision

How they frame the playoff will have a lot to do with this outcome, so we'll see.

Here is a quick run down of that committee:

• Scott Cowen - President, Tulane University
• Rev. John Jenkins - President, University of Notre Dame
• Bernie Machen - President, University of Florida
• Max Nikias - President, University of Southern California
• Duane Nellis - President, University of Idaho
• Harvey Perlman - Chancellor, University of Nebraska
• John G. Peters - President, Northern Illinois University
• Bill Powers - President, University of Texas
• James Ramsey - President, University of Louisville
• Gary Ransdell - President, Western Kentucky University
• Charles W. Steger (chair) - President, Virginia Tech
• John Welty - President, Fresno State

The Big 12 expansion committee just scheduled a tele-conference for this weekend. Yes, working on a weekend!

I wonder why?

Only an ACC homer ignores the reality. I am not down on the ACC as an academic conference(they are exceptionally strong academically and make the SEC and Big 12 cry academically). I am down on them in football.
They have been crushed by the SEC in football. And football is money and money is driving realignment. Pretty much everyone not in the ACC knows the ACC needed Notre Dame to save them. But ND is very likely leaning to the Big 12 now.

Again look at your numbers. Then subtract FSU and Clemson and move them to the Big 12. The ACC drops to below 500 points and the Big 12 supplants the SEC as the highest scoring conference even though it has 2 less teams.

OR don't subtract them but instead run them again since 2002. The numbers push Big 12 and SEC well ahead of the others since then. The league who falls the most is ACC because FSU/Miami fell hardcore.

Speculation? Ok, you can call it that if it makes you feel better but at worst it is actually educated guesses. At it's best it is simply sourced material relaying what has already been agreed to or at least officially discussed.

Two reports today to note that are hardcore factual stuff.

1) BCS official reports he expects 4 16-team conference by 2014. ...Noteworthy because he is in Chicago with all the major conference heads and ADs.

2) ND AD Swarbrick just noted nothing was done with regards to the Big 12 but listed the 3 issues he'd consider. 1) media rights.. i.e. money 2) current home (Big East) 3) playoff scenario chosen

We already know 2 of those 3 things are set. Big East is toast. Playoffs are all but official at 4 top teams chosen by committee after championship games.

The Big 12 needs a championship game and the other 3 major conferences will push them to have one to keep things even. The 2 most likely new members to give Big 12 a champ Game? FSU and Clemson. By far.

How more dominoes fall.
Look at that 4 super conference model and project....----this is pure speculation and could obviously shift but essentially you get the ACC divvied up into the other 4 power conferences and the Big East teams get left out in the cold. They all become part of the new mid-majors and have heinously long shots to ever win a title.

Big 12 gets ND, FSU, Clemson, Louisville, NC State, Miami
SEC gets UNC, Va Tech
B1G gets Ga Tech, UVA, Maryland, Rutgers

 

[DFWJC]

Again look at your numbers. Then subtract FSU and Clemson and move them to the Big 12. The ACC drops to below 500 points and the Big 12 supplants the SEC as the highest scoring conference even though it has 2 less teams.

OR don't subtract them but instead run them again since 2002. The numbers push Big 12 and SEC well ahead of the others since then. The league who falls the most is ACC because FSU/Miami fell hardcore.

Hey I won't deny and have never once said the Big 12 is not doing great right now. They have a big lead over the ACC for sure right now and a TV situation that looks to keep them there.

I just don't think FSU, Miami, VT, or Clemson will be down long term. If I assume right then they are right there with all other conferences except certainly the SEC and probably the Big 12 in football.

The numbers I showed illustrated a seperation after the top 5 (not the top 4) conferences. I think longer term, that would remain accurate unless teams were to leave the ACC for the first time in 30 years.

I've been wrong before though. And espcially given FSU's funkey finacial situation, a move would not be shocking.

It'll be fun to see how it plays out. This is nothing personal of course...just dialog.

As for the Big East. The are basically conference USA 2.0 now. They have always been funcky becasue had that that silly part membership thing and about 20 hoops teams. They have almost none of their main football members left from just 10 years ago. Their best teams are all ex-CUSA teams: Cincy, Louisville, USF.... Boise is talking of backing out, for good reason.

 

[DFWJC]

How more dominoes fall.
Look at that 4 super conference model and project....----this is pure speculation and could obviously shift but essentially you get the ACC divvied up into the other 4 power conferences and the Big East teams get left out in the cold. They all become part of the new mid-majors and have heinously long shots to ever win a title.

Big 12 gets ND, FSU, Clemson, Louisville, NC State, Miami
SEC gets UNC, Va Tech
B1G gets Ga Tech, UVA, Maryland, Rutgers

I'm not saying this is out line.
It's just that if they only have a four team playoff and they align conferences into super groups, they go much further backwards as far as being inclusive to the other 60-70 D-1 schools. The logical choice (not right away but soon after) then would be to have conf champ games in the 4 confences and then take the champs....totally locking out 1/2 of the schools. The list of Presidents that I posted may not like that.

Plus, even though Duke sux in football, they are very powerful in overall pull and would not get locked out. Syracuse, Pittsburgh and BC would not get locked either most likely. Unless it's 4, 18-22 team mega conferences, this seems tough to pull off.

Of course, if they go to 8 teams in 10 years, then it opens it back up some.

 

[jterrell]

Hey I won't deny and have never once said the Big 12 is not doing great right now. They have a big lead over the ACC for sure right now and a TV situation that looks to keep them there.

I just don't think FSU, Miami, VT, or Clemson will be down long term. If I assume right then they are right there with all other conferences except certainly the SEC and probably the Big 12 in football.

The numbers I showed illustrated a seperation after the top 5 (not the top 4) conferences. I think longer term, that would remain accurate unless teams were to leave the ACC for the first time in 30 years.

I've been wrong before though. And espcially given FSU's funkey finacial situation, a move would not be shocking.

It'll be fun to see how it plays out. This is nothing personal of course...just dialog.

As for the Big East. The are basically conference USA 2.0 now. They have always been funcky becasue had that that silly part membership thing and about 20 hoops teams. They have almost none of their main football members left from just 10 years ago. Their best teams are all ex-CUSA teams: Cincy, Louisville, USF.... Boise is talking of backing out, for good reason.

I hear ya.
It isn't personal for me either.
But it is a subject I find fascinating and spend a lot of time studying.

The ACC's issue is two-fold. 1) Money 2) recent football success.
It makes crazy sense for FSU and Clemson to leave.
They get much, much larger paychecks and handed back their 3rd tier rights which are worth as much as 10m per for FSU and 7m or so for Clemson.
Also there looks like a sweetener for FSU of a guaranteed ND game yearly to boot.

FSU goes from broke to rolling in dough. They can improve the academics with faculty pay increases and hiring. They can refurb the stadium or build a new one.

Clemson starts recruiting Texas and offers SEC recruits games in large markets like Dallas while touting academic superiority over the JUCO-laden SEC.

Clemson just landed the nation's top prospect.
FSU had Mario Edwards son last year. A kid from Denton. Texas.(10 minutes away as I post) Their names being linked with the big12 certainly doesn't hurt recruiting and playing in Texas is immense help as Missou saw for the past decade.

 

[jterrell]

I'm not saying this is out line.
It's just that if they only have a four team playoff and they align conferences into super groups, they go much further backwards as far as being inclusive to the other 60-70 D-1 schools. The logical choice (not right away but soon after) then would be to have conf champ games in the 4 confences and then take the champs....totally locking out 1/2 of the schools. The list of Presidents that I posted may not like that.

Of course, if they go to 8 teams in 10 years, then it opens it back up some.

That's why they won't make it just conference champs.
They'll make it top 4 via a selection committee that grants lots of sway to SOS and being a conference champ.

On that list Northern Illinois and Idaho are out now.
Over half are big-time schools.
The ones with a legit gripe are only a handful and really have no shot nowadays. The SEC, B1G, PAC12, Big12, ACC were really all that had legit shots. Any other team would have had to go undefeated versus insane competition to get in.

The recommendation is already being made on the playoff.

The presidents aren't voting on realignment. Realignment will get hot and heavy if B12 gets FSU and Clemson later this month/early next as anticipated. (8/15 is drop dead date)

I expect the SEC to get first dibs on the two teams they most want. Then the B1G swoops in. Big12 may well get last selections to fill out to 16 but will have the strongest 12 team set up going in.
Pac 12 takes whatever it wants out West. Maybe those ADs/Pres put on big boy britches and take Boise St and BYU. Maybe they pull in Air Force. Maybe that Fresno St Pres gets his school in.
That one I am in the dark about.