Speculation: FSU and Clemson to big 12?

[jterrell]

It's Saturday night, June 23rd.

There's been a lot of talk about Florida State joining the Big 12 this summer, and some here have said it is almost a certainty.

I have maintained that this is not so and that the overall benefits of them being in the ACC win out. Great all-around athletic/academics, eastern time zone, massive travel expenses and less visitor attendance, and the near certainty that FSU (and maybe Miami) will rise again in national prominence regardless of conference affilation are just a few reasons why I say they prefer the ACC over the Big 12.

I could be wrong!

So
I'm willing to make a friendly wager here to anyone willing to pull the trigger. I say they (FSU) don't agree leave the ACC for the Big 12 this summer....not for any season coming up (because probably the earliest they could join would be 2013 or 2014).
You can email me or pm me anytime with an offer.
But it has to be before midnight CST on June 25th.

jterrell, you seem like a very good option with your ACC bashing. So all in good fun, step up to the plate my Cowboy-fan brother!
Anyone else is welcome to play.

Name your stakes.

I think it is 65/35 that FSU announces this Summer; pre 8/15.
It would be for 2013 or 2014 but that's not a big deal as 2014 is when all the new BCS stuff comes into play anyway.

It is clear the Big12 already has FSU lined up and is pressuring Clemson right now according to various twitter accounts and validated at clemson's 24x7.

If you go to warchant.com I think you'd be hesitant to bet against FSU joining. They've run the financials and make a lot more money in the Big 12. They would certainly like a travel partner but if Clemson doesn't bite there will be other options as the ACC suffers fall out.

 

[jterrell]

Duke does suck in football for sure. The last time they were much of anything was when Spurrier was there.

But they always rank very high in the all-sports ratings.

The latest rankings (almost final rankings) have Duke ahead of all Big 12 schools except Texas.

right... because the Director's Cup counts water polo, field hockey and other sports. UT makes so much money off of football that they fund all these other zany sports. They just won the collegiate golf title....

That has zero to do with anything related to conference alignment.
Teams don't join conferences to play each other in field hockey, or golf

Duke has renowned lacrosse teams and other sports but again are really a great Ivy League fit. That is probably their best bet. Football is how the power conferences earn money and Duke doesn't really even try there.

 

[jterrell]

Latest tidbits.

Apparently in an effort to keep the football schools the ACC is offering ND 1.5 x shares for a total of 36 mil per year. Other schools would make 23.2 m.

If ND accepts full membership then FSU stays.

This is full out soap opera for men. Gotta love the twists and turns.

FWIW I still think ND signs extension with NBC and looks for a home for JUST Olympic sports. And that FSU/Clemson both join the Big 12.

 

[Rogah]

The Dukies have long wanted to go Ivy League.

Are you joking here or are you just showing us all how little you know what you are talking about?

 

[DFWJC]

Are you joking here or are you just showing us all how little you know what you are talking about?

jt is having fun with it, but is WAY off the reservation on those Duke comments. And I certainly am not a Duke fan. Saying Duke wants to be Ivy is like saying Stanford wants to as well. Neither is correct.

There are a handful (maybe 8-10) schools that have great academics and strong overall D-1 athletic programs. None are Ivys. Duke is usually pretty good in all sports except football, so that holds them back big-time. But I know too many Duke people to ever agree that they wish they were in the Ivy league.

Great combo programs are:
Stanford, UCLA, Michigan, Virginia, UNC, Cal, Texas, Duke, maybe Florida and few others. These rate very high in both the all-sports and in the academic rankings.
The all-sports can be a bit silly how they score it, but you'll find the prgrams at the top really do have great oeverall facilites and athletic programs.

Money-wise, program like Texas and Ohio State are so far ahead of the rest that they are not good comps. Most schools use their football and basketball prgrams to fund the 15-20 other sports they field. Having a huge profit sure helps raise the bar for the other sports too. Having a wealthy alumni base doesn't hurt either.

 

[DFWJC]

Latest tidbits.

Apparently in an effort to keep the football schools the ACC is offering ND 1.5 x shares for a total of 36 mil per year. Other schools would make 23.2 m.

If ND accepts full membership then FSU stays.

This is full out soap opera for men. Gotta love the twists and turns.

FWIW I still think ND signs extension with NBC and looks for a home for JUST Olympic sports. And that FSU/Clemson both join the Big 12.

By the way. The ACC has maybe the most difficult penalty for departures--20 million paid immediately....air tight. But then again, no one has left there in modern history.

 

[DFWJC]

Name your stakes.

I think it is 65/35 that FSU announces this Summer; pre 8/15.
It would be for 2013 or 2014 but that's not a big deal as 2014 is when all the new BCS stuff comes into play anyway.

It is clear the Big12 already has FSU lined up and is pressuring Clemson right now according to various twitter accounts and validated at clemson's 24x7.

If you go to warchant.com I think you'd be hesitant to bet against FSU joining. They've run the financials and make a lot more money in the Big 12. They would certainly like a travel partner but if Clemson doesn't bite there will be other options as the ACC suffers fall out.

You can pm me if you wish to make it a monetary bet, as I'm sure that's not cool on the site.

But I'd fly a Big 12 avatar for the 2012 football season if you are right, and if you agree to fly an ACC avater if you're wrong

I say it's 80-20 that FSU stays put. WAY too many advantages beyond what you (and many of their football fans) are looking at.

 

[Rogah]

jt is having fun with it, but is WAY off the reservation on those Duke comments. And I certainly am not a Duke fan. Saying Duke wants to be Ivy is like saying Stanford wants to as well. Neither is correct.

There are a handful (maybe 8-10) schools that have great academics and strong overall D-1 athletic programs. None are Ivys. Duke is usually pretty good in all sports except football, so that holds them back big-time. But I know too many Duke people to ever agree that they wish they were in the Ivy league.

+1. Duke has some good sports teams (and also some clunkers) but simple fact of the matter is that basketball rules the roost. Their basketball program is among the best in the nation. They're not going to take that program into the Ivy League.

 

[jterrell]

You can pm me if you wish to make it a monetary bet, as I'm sure that's not cool on the site.

But I'd fly a Big 12 avatar for the 2012 football season if you are right, and if you agree to fly an ACC avater if you're wrong

I say it's 80-20 that FSU stays put. WAY too many advantages beyond what you (and many of their football fans) are looking at.

Avatar bet works just fine.

 

[jterrell]

By the way. The ACC has maybe the most difficult penalty for departures--20 million paid immediately....air tight. But then again, no one has left there in modern history.

Which the Big 12 has already agreed to pay in full for FSU.
They handed WVA a large out check as well and then simply allowed a long-term re-payment. But for FSU talk is they'd just let them have it.
Clemson would likely get a loan.

The Big 12 gets up front cash from their TV signing and had those yearly incomes of Missou and TAMU to play with.

All that said, if the 3rd tier rights deal is found illegal that is a free pass for FSU and Clemson. Law suits and litigation are no-wins for the ACC anyway so you'd probably see a settlement at far less than 20m.

 

[jterrell]

jt is having fun with it, but is WAY off the reservation on those Duke comments. And I certainly am not a Duke fan. Saying Duke wants to be Ivy is like saying Stanford wants to as well. Neither is correct.

There are a handful (maybe 8-10) schools that have great academics and strong overall D-1 athletic programs. None are Ivys. Duke is usually pretty good in all sports except football, so that holds them back big-time. But I know too many Duke people to ever agree that they wish they were in the Ivy league.

Great combo programs are:
Stanford, UCLA, Michigan, Virginia, UNC, Cal, Texas, Duke, maybe Florida and few others. These rate very high in both the all-sports and in the academic rankings.
The all-sports can be a bit silly how they score it, but you'll find the prgrams at the top really do have great oeverall facilites and athletic programs.

Money-wise, program like Texas and Ohio State are so far ahead of the rest that they are not good comps. Most schools use their football and basketball prgrams to fund the 15-20 other sports they field. Having a huge profit sure helps raise the bar for the other sports too. Having a wealthy alumni base doesn't hurt either.

Rogah can't even spell Duke. Siding with him is sure to mean you are incorrect.

The Ivy League schools make more money than other in the country. They get tons of research and grant money. No school would turn them down. They are the richest and most elite.

Stanford is very, very happy where they sit and are the top academic/athletic program in the country. They ascended to that spot with the current Big 12 Commish as AD.

But Duke has never really liked any conference. They have their own culture and essentially are independent. They do enjoy basketball games versus ACC foes to be sure. But they play Kentucky as well and love those battles. Basketball doesn't requite a specific conference. Plenty of mid-majors make noise every year. And plenty of basketball programs turn a profit on their own. Duke would go to the NCAA tourney regardless of conference.

Would Duke students want to be Ivy League? HECK NO. Duke Faculty? HECK YES! Duke Leadership? Far more likely to side with faculty. At the end of the day Duke is an academic institution not an athletic one. Duke grads? The ones with brains absolutely would want to go Ivy League. It makes their diplomas just that much more valuable.

But the Ivy League is VERY, VERY unlikely to invite them. It was an outside the box solution to their conference problem posited as a mere possibility.

 

[DFWJC]

Which the Big 12 has already agreed to pay in full for FSU.
They handed WVA a large out check as well and then simply allowed a long-term re-payment. But for FSU talk is they'd just let them have it.
Clemson would likely get a loan.

The Big 12 gets up front cash from their TV signing and had those yearly incomes of Missou and TAMU to play with.

All that said, if the 3rd tier rights deal is found illegal that is a free pass for FSU and Clemson. Law suits and litigation are no-wins for the ACC anyway so you'd probably see a settlement at far less than 20m.

Some good points.

I did forget to mention that the ACC has the option to renegotiate the TV contract in 3-5 years.
However, and this is just speculation, I suspect ESPN would be willing to relook at it sooner if FSU and Clemson were poised to jump ship.

 

[jterrell]

Some good points.

I did forget to mention that the ACC has the option to renegotiate the TV contract in 3-5 years.
However, and this is just speculation, I suspect ESPN would be willing to relook at it sooner if FSU and Clemson were poised to jump ship.

The problem for the ACC was they just renegotiated the contract early and thus had next to no leverage. They also just gave away third tier rights which isn't as easily adjusted.

The Big 12 however has its massive tv offer in writing but hasn't made it official. Lots of speculation but ESPN is part of the Big 12 deal and may be fine just killing off the ACC altogether. ESPN is deeply in bed with UT. The Big 12 is likely trying to get to 16 and then sign its deal for even more money.

Right now it can offer 20m to any team it signs plus 3 to 4m for the Champ Game PLUS their own third tier rights which are valued at 7.5m per school on avg. PLUS any even cut of the BCS playoff money. It can easily reach 40m per school per year by 2015. The ACC schools will be lucky to make 30m. That is a huge difference. And that is why the discussion never ends.

The ACC has every reason to get ND in at all costs. If they do they can likely renegotiate their tv deals upwards in 3 years. Thus they are offering to hand ND a 1.5 x share apparently. If this happens things will be intriguing to watch. If that doesn't happen I don't see much left except the anticipated FSU/Clemson exit for the B12.

Conferences are certainly becoming less regional. It is about electronic footprint and tv markets now. Money is made off tv and ticket sales and in the future will be made almost solely electronically. TV content is provided by nationally based services now. It isn't about being available local over the air anymore. It is about how many subscriptions you can sale.

 

[Rogah]

Rogah can't even spell Duke. Siding with him is sure to mean you are incorrect.

Ah, so that answers my question. You weren't joking and you really do have no clue what you are talking about. :laugh2:

Here's something you obviously didn't know, genius: The Ivy League doesn't give out athletic scholarships. Essentially Duke would have to completely destroy their athletic department as it currently exists in order to make this move. The university would lose MILLIONS and MILLIONS of dollars if they did that. Your silly statement that Duke would go to the tourney "regardless of conference" is ridiculously ignorant.

If you're honestly suggesting that that is something that the university, the faculty or the administration of Duke would support, you really just have no clue.

 

[DFWJC]

The Ivy League schools make more money than other in the country. They get tons of research and grant money. No school would turn them down. They are the richest and most elite.

Stanford is very, very happy where they sit and are the top academic/athletic program in the country. They ascended to that spot with the current Big 12 Commish as AD.

But Duke has never really liked any conference. They have their own culture and essentially are independent. They do enjoy basketball games versus ACC foes to be sure. But they play Kentucky as well and love those battles. Basketball doesn't requite a specific conference. Plenty of mid-majors make noise every year. And plenty of basketball programs turn a profit on their own. Duke would go to the NCAA tourney regardless of conference.

Would Duke students want to be Ivy League? HECK NO. Duke Faculty? HECK YES! Duke Leadership? Far more likely to side with faculty. At the end of the day Duke is an academic institution not an athletic one. Duke grads? The ones with brains absolutely would want to go Ivy League. It makes their diplomas just that much more valuable.

But the Ivy League is VERY, VERY unlikely to invite them. It was an outside the box solution to their conference problem posited as a mere possibility.

You're off base regarding Duke, jt. Not that it is important.

Duke--along with other non-Ivys like Stanford, John Hopkins, Northwestern, Cal-Berkley, etc--already receive Ivy league like grant money...and in some cases much more.

Duke already ranks right there with the Ivys in almost all areas, but are far ahead in sports. And then there is that small issue regarding athletic scholarship funds. There is no reason to change.

 

[MC KAos]

ive maintained throughout that i dont think it will happen, but would for fsu and/or clemson to come to the big 12. i still hold out hope that it will happen, its still early in the process, Mizzou didnt announce their intentions to leave until well into the school year, so who knows. i think if they do leave, duke and UNC should go to the big 10, they would be excellent additions to that conference, and the big 10 would be the dominant conference in college basketball IMO

 

[Rogah]

You're off base regarding Duke, jt. Not that it is important.

Duke--along with other non-Ivys like Stanford, John Hopkins, Northwestern, Cal-Berkley, etc--already receive Ivy league like grant money...and in some cases much more.

Duke already ranks right there with the Ivys in almost all areas, but are far ahead in sports. And then there is that small issue regarding athletic scholarship funds. There is no reason to change.

+1 +1 +1.

 

[jterrell]

You're off base regarding Duke, jt. Not that it is important.

Duke--along with other non-Ivys like Stanford, John Hopkins, Northwestern, Cal-Berkley, etc--already receive Ivy league like grant money...and in some cases much more.

Duke already ranks right there with the Ivys in almost all areas, but are far ahead in sports. And then there is that small issue regarding athletic scholarship funds. There is no reason to change.

The difference is the massive private endowments of the Ivy League.
Harvard has a larger private endowment than Duke has in total research funds.

Duke and UT are both excellent all around colleges and routinely rank 15 in the country. But neither have true Ivy League cachet. The only President to ever be associated with Duke was Tricky Dick. Law Schooled there.

Again, purely from a financial standpoint Duke would do well in the Ivies and the faculty would love that.

But from a student perspective most of them could have been Ivy League anyways and chose not to.

But, again, doesn't matter as the Ivy League isn't inviting anyone. They think of Duke as big southern dumbies.

All 8 Ivies have larger private endowments than Duke.

Bottom line is Duke owuld undoubtedly benefit form Ivy League admission.

 

[jterrell]

https://twitter.com/#!/TuxedoYoda/media/slideshow?url=http%3A%2F%2Fi10.***BLOCKED***%2Falbums%2Fa107%2Fbig12north%2Fpoll.png

 

[DFWJC]

The difference is the massive private endowments of the Ivy League.
Harvard has a larger private endowment than Duke has in total research funds.

Duke and UT are both excellent all around colleges and routinely rank 15 in the country. But neither have true Ivy League cachet. The only President to ever be associated with Duke was Tricky Dick. Law Schooled there.

Again, purely from a financial standpoint Duke would do well in the Ivies and the faculty would love that.

But from a student perspective most of them could have been Ivy League anyways and chose not to.

But, again, doesn't matter as the Ivy League isn't inviting anyone. They think of Duke as big southern dumbies.

All 8 Ivies have larger private endowments than Duke.

Bottom line is Duke owuld undoubtedly benefit form Ivy League admission.

You are mistaken. Duke has a larger endowment than several Ivies. Harvard, Yale and Princeton are on another plane, but they are who they are.

Duke also routinely ranks near the middle of the Ivy pack in overall college rankings, maybe lower 1/3.

And no, Ivies do not think of Duke that way: maybe Tulane or SMU do not get respect, but Duke is a top 10 school.
This year they rank ahead of Dartmouth, Brown and Cornell.

Did you just mention Duke and UT in the same sentence?

UT is excellent but they never rate top 15. Never.
Maybe in a specific department (for sure Accounting) but not in the overall rankings. In fact they were 45th this year.

This year
Duke is 10th
and
UNC, UVa, Wake Forest, rank far (about 15-20 slots) ahead of UT. And Texas is strong.
In fact, amound US News 2012 ranking of National Universities,
SEVEN ACC schools rank ahead of the top Big 12 school, UT

Not that it will score any extra TDs this fall.