Speculation: FSU and Clemson to big 12?

[ABQCOWBOY]

FSU ranks middle of the road for academic ranking versus big 12 schools. They were at 101 in the latest us news and world rankings which tied them with Oklahoma and Kansas but put them well behind UT and Baylor while still below TCU and Iowa State.

FSU needs to make more money period. They really have next to choice. The money people want the move badly and in any business money people win out ultimately.

Clemson and FSU would both welcome SEC invites but Florida isn't blessing that. FSU probably has no better offer than the Big 12 and they badly need the offer. Both because they can't recruit as well in the ACC and because they are desperate for higher pay outs which can be used to higher faculty.

Clemson did take a small misstep as ADs are prideful people but they did so because the big 12 made it known they were a back up plan. Doesn't look like a marriage there so we'll see how it all falls after June 26th.

My guess is early July we see movement again and hopefully movement that is official. With realignment nothing is done until it is done. And the wheels are always turning.

FSU has to move. They can not last another 5 years in the ACC. Financially, that's suicide. Clemson may be be out. I here what you are saying but it may not matter. There are a lot of people in the Big 12 who look at those comments and remember. Clemson may or may not be in but if they are not in, it's not because of ND. It's because members of the Big 12 didn't like what was said by there AD.

You are correct and I have said much the same thing in the past. Clemson and FSU will never get an invite to the SEC. Florida, South Carolina and Georgia will never vote Clemson or FSU into the SEC. They just won't or it would have long since happened.

I don't see ND going to the ACC unless the ACC changes their rules and allows for schools to have third tier revenue come directly to those schools. The only reason ND likes the Big 12 is because the Big 12 allows that. The ACC can't allow for that because if they do, then Carolina and Duke would immediately take advantage of that and there goes the Raycom agreement and the rest of the league. I just don't see that happening. I think ND will not join the ACC. I think they would really only consider the Big 12 if anybody.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Louisville is a sleeper as they have never hidden that they want in and have Congressional backing and Papa Johns money willing to pour money into facilities as needed to get the invite.

This is related to a study that was conducted by the Big 12 on potential revenue earnings from Louisville. They don't grade out very well and the Big 12 has taken a step back on them.

 

[jterrell]

more notes:

1st and foremost the big 12 has never been in better shape. ND to the Big 12 was considered a b12 wet dream only months ago.

I agree you have to be careful with ND. big east guys are the ones with cautionary tales and the b12 ADs should heed WVA experience here. I have heard 4 games a year but if you can get up to 6 games that may be the deal maker. 6 games is probably enough to make it happen. It would be weird but no more weird than the b1g with their top teams not playing each other.

abq: great point on that financial study. neinas commissioned it and got what was ultimately best for the b12 with TCU. dude is smart. luckily they found another gem in the ex-stanford ad. big step up from the yes men of the past.

imho the b12 needs to be aggressive and put this all to bed.

The SEC and b12 are going to carve up the remaining desirable ACC teams. SEC will get first choice but B12 will still come out smiling. UVA, VaTech, Clem, FSU, UNC, NCST, GaTech. Decent meat to pick off that bone.

the 12.5 argument makes sense but the ut contingent prefers an 11.5 alignment that doesn't include a title game. something like a 6+3 sched that is 3 rivalry games and 6 round robin amongst all non-rivals. ut probably takes ou/tech/bay as rivals. ou takes ut/osu/kansas. something like that. you could plug in ND as a flat 6 with their 3 rival games coming outside the conf. usc, navy, mich. and they'd have 2 more non-conf games: mich st, purdue, air force all options.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

more notes:

1st and foremost the big 12 has never been in better shape. ND to the Big 12 was considered a b12 wet dream only months ago.

I agree you have to be careful with ND. big east guys are the ones with cautionary tales and the b12 ADs should heed WVA experience here. I have heard 4 games a year but if you can get up to 6 games that may be the deal maker. 6 games is probably enough to make it happen. It would be weird but no more weird than the b1g with their top teams not playing each other.

abq: great point on that financial study. neinas commissioned it and got what was ultimately best for the b12 with TCU. dude is smart. luckily they found another gem in the ex-stanford ad. big step up from the yes men of the past.

imho the b12 needs to be aggressive and put this all to bed.

The SEC and b12 are going to carve up the remaining desirable ACC teams. SEC will get first choice but B12 will still come out smiling. UVA, VaTech, Clem, FSU, UNC, NCST, GaTech. Decent meat to pick off that bone.

the 12.5 argument makes sense but the ut contingent prefers an 11.5 alignment that doesn't include a title game. something like a 6+3 sched that is 3 rivalry games and 6 round robin amongst all non-rivals. ut probably takes ou/tech/bay as rivals. ou takes ut/osu/kansas. something like that. you could plug in ND as a flat 6 with their 3 rival games coming outside the conf. usc, navy, mich. and they'd have 2 more non-conf games: mich st, purdue, air force all options.

If I have heard correctly there are escalators in the contract that kick in when you reach 12 but not before that and I don't know how they would stay at 11.5 and not reach that goal.

Also not sure how partial number of games would play into that and I would also not like it if ND could be allowed to be a conference champion (whether the Big12 has a championship game or not) if they are not full members in football. Nor would I like it if they were given bowl slots that would normally go to Big12 teams. By that I don't want them to get a decent bowl game that normally would have gone to the second, third etc big 12 teams that are full members. That scenario has happened in the big east.

I would also hope that they would have a greatly reduced rate of Big12 payout if it was just olympic sports only.

Another problem I would have with them being a perm partial member is that I imagine that Texas would want to work some deal where they were always one of the teams that ND would play instead of it being a system where it would rotate to every team in the big12.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

If I have heard correctly there are escalators in the contract that kick in when you reach 12 but not before that and I don't know how they would stay at 11.5 and not reach that goal.

Also not sure how partial number of games would play into that and I would also not like it if ND could be allowed to be a conference champion (whether the Big12 has a championship game or not) if they are not full members in football. Nor would I like it if they were given bowl slots that would normally go to Big12 teams. By that I don't want them to get a decent bowl game that normally would have gone to the second, third etc big 12 teams that are full members. That scenario has happened in the big east.

I would also hope that they would have a greatly reduced rate of Big12 payout if it was just olympic sports only.

Another problem I would have with them being a perm partial member is that I imagine that Texas would want to work some deal where they were always one of the teams that ND would play instead of it being a system where it would rotate to every team in the big12.

I don't think they would be Big 12 Champs in that situation but I doubt they would (ND) consider taking less of a cut. That's just ND. They have leverage there because they are considering full membership I would think.

As far as Texas/ND, the rumor is that Texas sees ND as the natural replacement for TAMU for the annual Thanks Giving Game. That would be really good for both programs.

 

[jterrell]

If I have heard correctly there are escalators in the contract that kick in when you reach 12 but not before that and I don't know how they would stay at 11.5 and not reach that goal.

Also not sure how partial number of games would play into that and I would also not like it if ND could be allowed to be a conference champion (whether the Big12 has a championship game or not) if they are not full members in football. Nor would I like it if they were given bowl slots that would normally go to Big12 teams. By that I don't want them to get a decent bowl game that normally would have gone to the second, third etc big 12 teams that are full members. That scenario has happened in the big east.

I would also hope that they would have a greatly reduced rate of Big12 payout if it was just olympic sports only.

Another problem I would have with them being a perm partial member is that I imagine that Texas would want to work some deal where they were always one of the teams that ND would play instead of it being a system where it would rotate to every team in the big12.

the tv deal allows for renegotiation at any number but guarantees a minimum payout of 20 mil to each additional club added.

they do get 3-4m per team on a champ game(not all from tv) so the 12 theoretically gets them that.

could ut get ND in as a 6+1 or 5+1 as the b12 rival? fair concern.

bigger concern for me is notre dame can actually win in the big 12 once they can actually recruit texas again. 2 games a year versus texas teams with one in texas makes that happen....

notre dame could get give 6 games to the big 12 and lock in an even share.
then sell the other 5 games to NBC for probably 15m. that's insane money.
but the b12 may well allow it to get them in.

right now ut makes more money off sports than notre dame.
texas generated 65 m off of football, notre dame was second highest overall and in football came in at 47 m. the golden domers could close that gap with a b12 deal.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I don't know about the 6. I am hearing 6 and I am also hearing 4 so who knows what the actually truth of it is.

I also just read someone today who is talking about BYU possibly being back in the mix.

Seems to suggest, does not flat out say it just suggest, that maybe ND as partial and BYU as football only.

I really can't believe that idea when you could easily find another team to be a full member...plus I just don't see why the Big12 would want to head further west when they want to have FSU and ND join. My understanding was they wanted to add more from the South/East side to make it an easier breakup of conference sides.

I really hope this info is some sources throwing out intentionally wrong stuff in order to try to get some other teams to move in a direction they want.

Just don't see the BYU thing as legit.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I don't know about the 6. I am hearing 6 and I am also hearing 4 so who knows what the actually truth of it is.

I also just read someone today who is talking about BYU possibly being back in the mix.

Seems to suggest, does not flat out say it just suggest, that maybe ND as partial and BYU as football only.

I really can't believe that idea when you could easily find another team to be a full member...plus I just don't see why the Big12 would want to head further west when they want to have FSU and ND join. My understanding was they wanted to add more from the South/East side to make it an easier breakup of conference sides.

I really hope this info is some sources throwing out intentionally wrong stuff in order to try to get some other teams to move in a direction they want.

Just don't see the BYU thing as legit.

BYU is legit BP and I have been hearing this for a long time. This is not to say that BYU will happen but they have consistently been in the mix, just not the first tier. BYU adds a lot of balance to the North and they also have strong academics plus, like ND, they have a built in national audience that will follow them anywhere. Lots of money connected to BYU.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

BYU is legit BP and I have been hearing this for a long time. This is not to say that BYU will happen but they have consistently been in the mix, just not the first tier. BYU adds a lot of balance to the North and they also have strong academics plus, like ND, they have a built in national audience that will follow them anywhere. Lots of money connected to BYU.

I was told the no Sunday thing was a BIIIIGGG sticking point for both parties.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I was told the no Sunday thing was a BIIIIGGG sticking point for both parties.

It is, which is why they were not one of the first tier type choices. However, there are still discussions going on from what I understand. At this point, nothing major is happening because nobody knows yet what the playoff structure will look like and that is going to drive every other decision. For example, if ND does not have a VERY favorable situation in whatever comes from those discussions, it's very likely that they will join the Big 12. If they have a cake deal like they did before, they will probably only consider a partial deal with no agreement on joining Football at all. What ND decides will drive whomever else makes it. BYU and ND in the North would be an obvious natural rivalry game. That would generate a lot of big money for both programs. I don't know what will ultimately happen where either of those schools are concerned but the possibility that both will land up in the Big 12 North is very real.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

It is, which is why they were not one of the first tier type choices. However, there are still discussions going on from what I understand. At this point, nothing major is happening because nobody knows yet what the playoff structure will look like and that is going to drive every other decision. For example, if ND does not have a VERY favorable situation in whatever comes from those discussions, it's very likely that they will join the Big 12. If they have a cake deal like they did before, they will probably only consider a partial deal with no agreement on joining Football at all. What ND decides will drive whomever else makes it. BYU and ND in the North would be an obvious natural rivalry game. That would generate a lot of big money for both programs. I don't know what will ultimately happen where either of those schools are concerned but the possibility that both will land up in the Big 12 North is very real.

Don't go breaking my heart. :

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Don't go breaking my heart. :

The thing that nobody is really talking about but is a big deal in the minds of the Big 12 is what happened when they set up the North and South before. You had Nebraska in the North but really nobody else. In the South, you had Texas and OU and lots of other schools that would have a good year or two every so often. Basically, you always had 3 teams that were good in the South and maybe Nebraska in the North. They do not want to commit the same mistake because losing Nebraska was a big blow to the Big 12. The Big 12 had every intention of trying to change that prior to the departure of the Corn Huskers but Nebraska was butt hurt about having no power in the Big 12 and having a crappy team for many of those years. Osbourn didn't want to wait and the Big 10 was there so.........

WV will have at least two other good teams in the North with them. I'm convinced of that. Not only is that something the Big 12 wants to see happen but the way it looks right now, the 4 team playoff scenario is probably what will get adopted and in that scenario, it's possible that you could have two teams from the same conference get bids but probably only if those two teams are in different Divisions. Two teams from the same division probably won't work because whichever one wins out will effectively eliminate the other specifically because of the Conference Championship Game. You pretty much need the other division to have a strong team and enough good teams in their division to keep them ranked very high in the polls. This type of playoff scenario lends itself to the idea of having 3 or 4 very strong programs in each division. If you bring ND and BYU into the North and give them access to Texas talent, they are going to build strong programs.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

The thing that nobody is really talking about but is a big deal in the minds of the Big 12 is what happened when they set up the North and South before. You had Nebraska in the North but really nobody else. In the South, you had Texas and OU and lots of other schools that would have a good year or two every so often. Basically, you always had 3 teams that were good in the South and maybe Nebraska in the North. They do not want to commit the same mistake because losing Nebraska was a big blow to the Big 12. The Big 12 had every intention of trying to change that prior to the departure of the Corn Huskers but Nebraska was butt hurt about having no power in the Big 12 and having a crappy team for many of those years. Osbourn didn't want to wait and the Big 10 was there so.........

WV will have at least two other good teams in the North with them. I'm convinced of that. Not only is that something the Big 12 wants to see happen but the way it looks right now, the 4 team playoff scenario is probably what will get adopted and in that scenario, it's possible that you could have two teams from the same conference get bids but probably only if those two teams are in different Divisions. Two teams from the same division probably won't work because whichever one wins out will effectively eliminate the other specifically because of the Conference Championship Game. You pretty much need the other division to have a strong team and enough good teams in their division to keep them ranked very high in the polls. This type of playoff scenario lends itself to the idea of having 3 or 4 very strong programs in each division. If you bring ND and BYU into the North and give them access to Texas talent, they are going to build strong programs.

Are you sure they are going to go with the north/south plan once they add teams?

I have been hearing there is talk about east/west and part of the reason they wanted to expand more east vs far west ala BYU.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Are you sure they are going to go with the north/south plan once they add teams?

I have been hearing there is talk about east/west and part of the reason they wanted to expand more east vs far west ala BYU.

If what I'm hearing on the new Playoff format is accurate, then yeah, I think they almost have to. I mean, they could call it East and West but a two division Alignment, IMO, would be the best way to go.

BYU is linked to ND IMO. Both are independents so there situations are similar. If ND decides that joining a conference is the only way to go, then it's very likely that BYU does the same and the most natural fit would be the Big 12 if they can settle differences. As I said before, ND will be the deciding factor in a whole lot of decisions for the Big 12.

 

[jobberone]

I think there is too much emphasis on some things said in Clemson. The Pres will be politely heard but has no real voice in this. Neither does the AD. The coach is lucky to have a job. Nobody is listening to him over than politely. The power in Clemson is in the Board and that has been shifting from the old timers to the newcomers for awhile and may finally be there enough to be the real voice. The board minus one real old timer and maybe another are all on board to go to the Big 12 although their real interest is the SEC. However, they all know that's not happening. SC is ring leader against that followed by FL and I don't know about GA.

It's ND and I don't know this its just a WAG but I think ND is playing the Big 12 to get a bigger independent contract. I have no knowledge of the inside politics at ND so my opinion there means nothing. I think the Big 12 should take Clemson and FSU and wait for ND to come to them in a few years when they realize they have screwed themselves.

 

[Rogah]

The Big East, 1995: "Notre Dame wants to join our conference for all sports except football. Let's let 'em do it because that way, when they're finally ready to join a conference in football, we'll be the logical choice!"

The Big XII, 2012: "Notre Dame wants to join our conference for all sports except football. Let's let 'em do it because that way, when they're finally ready to join a conference in football, we'll be the logical choice!"

Those who know not their history are doomed to repeat it. :laugh1:

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I think there is too much emphasis on some things said in Clemson. The Pres will be politely heard but has no real voice in this. Neither does the AD. The coach is lucky to have a job. Nobody is listening to him over than politely. The power in Clemson is in the Board and that has been shifting from the old timers to the newcomers for awhile and may finally be there enough to be the real voice. The board minus one real old timer and maybe another are all on board to go to the Big 12 although their real interest is the SEC. However, they all know that's not happening. SC is ring leader against that followed by FL and I don't know about GA.

It's ND and I don't know this its just a WAG but I think ND is playing the Big 12 to get a bigger independent contract. I have no knowledge of the inside politics at ND so my opinion there means nothing. I think the Big 12 should take Clemson and FSU and wait for ND to come to them in a few years when they realize they have screwed themselves.

I think the idea that ND is trying to leverage the Big 12 is a sure thing. They have done this for years with the Big 10 and the Big East so it's a sure thing that they are doing the same with the Big 12. The difference is that because of the consideration for a Playoff format, it's possible that ND may be forced to join a conference. We don't know if that is a reality yet because we don't know the details of any approved Playoff format. If ND is not forced to join a conference, then they absolutely won't. To me, it's a question of who has more influence in College Football? If ND does, then it's likely that there won't be any playoff agreement that forces them to join a Conference. If it's Texas or ESPN, then it's likely that something will be adopted that will force ND to join a conference and that conference will almost assuredly be the Big 12 if no exceptions or changes are made to the Big 10 etc.

JMO

 

[Rogah]

The difference is that because of the consideration for a Playoff format, it's possible that ND may be forced to join a conference.

People have been saying "If such-and-such happens, then Notre Dame may be forced to join a conference" for about 25 years now. I don't see anything about the proposed playoff formats that would give ND an incentive to join a conference. Heck, you could argue that joining a conference would hurt their chances at making the playoffs because they would have to play a conference championship game which would give them one extra tough game they'd have to win.

 

[DFWJC]

florida state was a national powerhouse BEFORE joining the ACC and Clemson is a football crazy school stuck in a 2nd tier football conference.

FSU won both of its National Titles as an ACC member (I think that equals OU and UT combined since 1990). Clemson won one as a member as well. Just a reminder.
I think they're on the way up again now as well.

These things trend up and down. That conference has several very good football programs that have underachieved lately. And then above and beyond football, well, they are outstanding.

It's a wild environment out there right now with a lot of knee-jerk reactions being made based on short-term objectives tied to an uncertain future...so I guess anything is possible.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

People have been saying "If such-and-such happens, then Notre Dame may be forced to join a conference" for about 25 years now. I don't see anything about the proposed playoff formats that would give ND an incentive to join a conference. Heck, you could argue that joining a conference would hurt their chances at making the playoffs because they would have to play a conference championship game which would give them one extra tough game they'd have to win.

Really, what have you seen on a proposed playoff format? I personally have seen nothing but would be interested in any info you have that might shed light on what is to be proposed?