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From Baylor 24/7 on Big XII additions:
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About three weeks ago, one of my sources on conference realignment called. I thought he was just calling to catch up and say "hello."
I was wrong.
The BCS meetings regarding a college football playoff at the FBS level were approaching, and he told me to watch carefully what came out of those meetings.
Soon after the ACC schools received their new ESPN contract - which averaged $17 million per school, per year over 15 years - the news leaked of a Big 12 contract for the top two tiers in the range of $20 million apiece. That meant two tiers of the Big 12 was valued at $3 million more than all three tiers of ACC programming.
At that time, at least 10 universities started a market research study on the value of their tier three rights, which remain in possession by Big 12 schools after equally distributing the top two tiers.
Louisville, Pitt, Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and BYU all received their studies and went to media outlets to gauge the monetary value.
Notre Dame would receive the largest amount, followed by Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. The others were all told that their rights were valued in the $4 million range.
Last Thursday, intermediaries from several schools reached out to decision makers to start conversations about possibly moving to the Big 12.
On Saturday, the Chairman of Florida State's Board of Trustees blasted the ACC contract - especially in terms of the institutions where football was more of a focus than basetball.
Another detail that came to light was that the new ACC contract was backloaded - with members not receiving the $17 million until 2021. The Big 12 deal had a greater rate of acceleration, with schools receiving the $20 million by 2015 - when the rumored ESPN contract would go into effect.
As of today, the ESPN Big 12 contract has not been signed. Escalator clauses in the contract for getting back to 12 teams will raise the contract northward of $25 million per team. The media contracts for the Big 12 will reopen for negotiation if the league expands past 12 teams.
At this time, the Big 12 powers are happy with the thought of 12 teams and a new conference championship game. However, a few of the league's major players would like the contract to reopen for possibly more money by going to 14 teams.
With 14 teams, expected payouts would be approximately $28 million per school, with another $2 million or so per team coming from a conference championship game. And remember, the schools also have their tier 3 rights - unlike the ACC.
Florida State and Clemson coaches have been told a possible move to the Big 12 was under way, and to be ready for this on the road recruiting.
Secondly, our sources also state a Big 12 Tier 3 Network for the schools without the pull of a Texas or OU could form and would likely mean an additional $4 million to $6 million for those institutions. This would ensure constant programming for either Fox Sports or ESPN to show in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and other conference markets. Adding two ACC schools would further the reach of this network.
Originally Texas and OU were wanting to remain at 10 schools in the conference, but they began to consider expansion when the tier 3 studies were done by the other schools. The ability of the Big 12 to attract national brands such as Florida State and Clemson raised the bar a bit for a conference long-since stabilized by a 13-year grant of rights by its members.
The next obstacle is finding the right teams to add - and how many. There are several suitors for the additional two or four seats. The issue remains which schools could increase the current contract to the maximum projected $28 million.
Our sources have told us decisions could be made by May 30, when the Big 12 has its annual membership meeting.
All situations can change. However, according to people we trust, if Clemson and Florida State inform the ACC of their decision to leave - and the schools complete the application process for Big 12 membership - then discussions could take place at the May meeting.
It is unclear if the power brokers in the conference would rubber-stamp the applications, or if a school like Texas or Oklahoma would balk at FSU and Clemson being the first two added to the conference ranks.
