Alexander;1509193 said:
It is much too early to judge any player with less than three years in.
And not many of these players were chosen nearly as high as Ellis. Take away the Moss stigma, I am sure many would feel much better about his selection.
Fine by me. Look at players drafted from 2004 down. Start with Smith and go from there. I think that's still something like 44 players. IMO, I think you can say that about players taken in 2006 and 2007 buy three full seasons in the league, IMO, is probably sufficiant time to start making judgements. The numbers are still in favor of Ellis no matter how you look at it. I also think that it's irrelivant to say that because he was the 8th pick, he should some how be better. It is relative from year to year. For example, in 83, the famous year of the QB, 6 QBs are taken in the first round. Dan Marino is the 2nd to last pick in the first round. If he comes out a year earlier (Art Schlichter is the first QB taken in 82 with the 4th overall pick) or a year later (Not a single QB is taken in the 1st rd) there's no way he is drafted that low. It's silly to say that because he was drafted at #8 over all in a very weak draft class, that he is somewho not worthy of being considered a good player. Do we then say that Hall of Fame QB John Elway is somehow not deserving of being in the Hall of Fame because he was the first player taken in 84 and statistically speaking, he was not the best QB of the class? Because Marino ownes the record book in the NFL and was taken at 27, that lessons Elways greatness? Not trying to put words in your mouth here Alex but it's just crazy to view it in this light.
This has been posted about a hundred times but just to put it in perspective, here are the players choosen in the first round of the 98 draft.
1 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
3 3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State
4 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan
5 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
6 6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska
7 7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
8 8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
9 9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
10 10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL)
11 11 Tra Thomas Eagles T Florida State
12 12 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech
13 13 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn
14 14 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska
15 15 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson
16 16 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah
17 17 Brian Simmons Bengals LB North Carolina
18 18 Robert Edwards Patriots RB Georgia
19 19 Vonnie Holliday Packers DT North Carolina
20 20 Terry Fair Lions DB Tennessee
21 21 Randy Moss Vikings WR Marshall
22 22 Tebucky Jones Patriots DB Syracuse
23 23 Mo Collins Raiders T Florida
24 24 Shaun Williams Giants DB UCLA
25 25 Donovin Darius Jaguars DB Syracuse
26 26 Alan Faneca Steelers G Louisiana State
27 27 Victor Riley Chiefs T Auburn
28 28 R.W. McQuarters 49ers DB Oklahoma State
29 29 John Avery Dolphins RB Mississippi
30 30 Marcus Nash
As I review this draft, only one player taken before Ellis has had a better career, IMO, then has Ellis and that's Manning. A player we never had opportunity to take. Of the entire 1st rd, I'd say that only Manning, Taylor, Moss (?) and Faneca have had better careers. That's four players out of 30. I think you might be able to say that Thomas, Brookings, Dyson and perhaps Woodson have had simular success but I wouldn't call them better. Given what was available, I can't see how you can say he has not lived up to his draft position. What would be the alternative to picking Ellis if he was not worth the 8th pick? Not picking?
As an alternative to looking at the 98 draft, here is another way of viewing Ellis and his value. Since 2004, going back to 1984, here are the players taken at number 8.
2004 DeAngelo Hall
2003 Jordan Goss
2002 Roy Williams
2001 David Terrell
2000 Plaxico Burress
1999 David Boston
1998 Greg Ellis
1997 James Farrior
1996 Tim Biakabutuka
1995 Jeoy Galloway
1994 Sam Adams
1993 Willie Roaf
1992 Bob Whitfield
1991 Antonio Davis
1990 Chris Singleton
1989 Burt Grossman
1988 Dave Cadigan
1987 Shane Conlan
1986 Leslie O'Neal
1985 Ron Holmes
1984 Leonard Coleman
(As an aside, 8th overall picks in 07/06/05 are Jamaal Anderson, Donte Whitner and Antrel Roll).
Now, this is a list going back some 20 years. From this list, I would say that only 3 or 4 players have had better careers then Ellis. Now you can say that we should judge on our own scale and not consider what other thems have done but IMO, that's kind of a cop out. You have to consider trends. Based on this info, I'd honestly say that it is more a case of our fan base not liking Ellis and allowing that to color opinion of what he has done as opposed to looking at him for what he has been in his career. I mean, there are a lot of names on this list who were much worse players then Ellis. I just think it's crazy to say that because he was picked 8th over all, he somehow is not worthy of being considered as a good player for us.
Lastly, I think it's interesting that you would make the point that you can't look at guys who have been drafted in the last 3 years and make deteriminations on them. I do agree with you. Perhaps not on the the term in which you use to start evaluating them but on the general point, I agree. Having said that, you have people here who are OK with cutting Ellis lose in favor of a guy who has never played a single game. Not saying your one of them but I am saying it's foolish to make that kind of decision when we don't know how good Spencer will be as yet.
