Both OU and UT will pay the exit fee to get in on the 2022 SEC season. They have both tried to make this look like a crawl, walk, run process but they'd already made that decision when they went after the SEC.
The other side of this is that UT saw what AR had to deal with when they announced they were leaving for the SEC and they are not about to send their athletes into Big 12 markets for anything longer than this season. This is about two things, money and recruiting, and they need to move quickly.
That's actually not an option "right now".
The grant of rights is through 2024 and is iron clad so long as the conferfence exists.
UT/OU would have to negotiate much higher than 70M each buyouts to leave next year.
This is why ESPN tried to sway 3-5 schools to join the AAC. And why they were sent a cease and desist letter.
It will go to legal remedies if the Big 12 falls apart now.
SEC just voted to extend SEC membership to OU/UT in 2025.
They won't risk their own legal battles here so will wait on OU/UT/ESPN to deal with Big 12 situation.
The Big 12 has literally never done the smart thing but in this case all they have to do is hold their water 10 months.
UCONN was due an 11m buyout wanted to leave early so paid 17M.
OU/UT would be paying over 100M each to leave for 2022 or 2023.