What is Dak's Trade Value?

[NotForLong]

Two firsts and a starting player.

But who is replacing him?

In your dreams

 

[PAPPYDOG]

No GM would give a 1# draft pick for an overpriced Prescott.
Dreamworld here jeez.......
Wake up folks with that contract we would probably have to give picks for anyone to consider taking him and I'm talking # 1 picks.

 

[NotForLong]

Dak is top 10 and he has been more than playing up to his contract. There isnt as much of a debate as its a study of what other good QB's have gotten recently in trades. Wilson and Watson have been traded in the last two years and its public knowledge. Dak in his prime would be worth more than those just as much if not more than those QB's in a trade.

So sad

 

[Toro9]

I know it’ll be taken as Dak bashing by select individuals here, but follow me through objective logic for a second:

Do you believe Kirk Cousins could get 2 first round picks right now in a trade? Now, do you believe Jared Goff could get 2 first round picks in a trade? How about Geno Smith; do you think he’s worth 2 firsts?

The answer to each of those is a resounding no. You could argue none would even get a single first, especially after what happened to Derek Carr. I’m not saying Dak Prescott is the same player as them, I myself would put him a spot or two higher on a best QB list. He’s 9-11, they’re 11-15 type guys. But if Prescott put up a season in 2023 that was identical to any of their 3 2022 seasons (around 4000 yards, around 30 TDs, 8-13 INTs) people would call it “a nice, usual DP season.” Their tiers are not wildly different.

How many times do you hear people say it’s not his fault, he needs a better line, he needs better receivers, he needs better coaching. Teams don’t trade 2 1sts for players who requiring those things for the trade to pan out. They go for the players who are perceived to elevate the limited talent they have right now. Deshaun was once thought to be that guy, Russell had proven to be that guy. Whether those trades work out after the fact is a different matter.

Nice retort.

 

[starfan1]

GM's arent like the average fan. They are not going to blame a QB like Dak for the TEAM not winning the SB.

After Wilsons SB run early in his career, what has the team done?

QB's like Dak are coveted by any team with a QB outside the top 10 unless they have a young guy.

Well I don’t blame Dak either for the post season losses at least not solely

I do however recognize that while he may not be completely at fault he didn’t stand out either

Maybe you’re right if the browns would give up as much as they did for the massage room bandit then I guess it’s possible someone could pony up for Dak the draft capital you mentioned

His contract is problematic but so is watsons and deshaun hasn’t accomplished nothing with Houston either

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

I'm kinda trying to catch up here with everyone's comment so forgive me if I have this wrong.

I think you should take a step back and a breath. It appears you are using this to lecture at who you think is Dak bashing?

The OP proposed a specific scenario. Well not SUPER specific...but..if dak does "fail"...here...what's the trade value?

I think Dak's stock plummets not only as trade bait but Cowboys QB value.

That's not bashing it's reality.

You have this wrong....so I forgive you!

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

There is no case where an older Wilson or watson are not on the same level as a Dak in his prime.

What did Wilson need to win the SB? The #1 D in the NFL and the top run game in the NFL? Wilson was carried to the SB for the most part as a young QB. And what did he do once that magical D went away? Never even returned to the championship game. Cowboys beat them with Dak in the playoffs even.

Are you under some kind illusion that Mahomes or Brady dont have great teams and coaching around them when they win? Aikman didnt have a great team around him? List goes on and on.

Why do you think the Rams traded for Stafford? Stafford was the poster child of a lack of team success and putting up nice numbers. Rams gave up 2 first round picks for him AND Goff. Stafford was 34 I believe when the Rams traded for him. They drop Stafford onto a championship level team with the #1 defense and a good offense and poof championship. That same Rams defense falls apart after the SB and Stafford cant even make the playoffs.

And Russell Wilson blew out Peyton Manning in a SB. Is that any indication he’s better? What does that state in comparing the two QBs? Absolutely nothing. You’re trying to contradict your own argument:

And what did he do once that magical D went away?

You establish that without a great team, Wilson didn’t make the SB. That informs you Dak is comparable because he never made it that far himself because he didn’t have Seattle’s D. Then you turn around and say this:

Are you under some kind illusion that Mahomes or Brady dont have great teams and coaching around them when they win?

Mahomes’ team doesn’t have close the talent Dak has. Remove all teams’ QBs; Dallas is a top 5 most talented team, KC isn’t top 10. Do you realize how many rookies and second year players they have on defense? Were they even a top 15 D? They have a bottom third WR group, and arguably worse RB room. Dallas is absolutely loaded compared to KC. The difference is the QB

Yes, all QBs need a team around them. But it not as an absolutist as you are painting it. The QB has an extraordinarily high influence on the outcome of a game, especially when the talent level of the two teams is comparable. You can also evaluate the talent and ability of a player without needing to see him get that far in the playoffs. How does he do when he doesn’t have that talent? What happens when the team is expected to be bad?

In 2018 before you traded for Amari, Dak was not having a great season. If that trade didn’t go through, and Dak continued to play as he had early that season, is he your franchise QB right now? There’s a strong possibility that isn’t the case.

In 2020, Seattle was considered a rebuilding team. Russell Wilson had a phenomenal season and they went 12-4. That was the ninth consecutive year he had a winning record. They didnt always have a great D. They didn’t always have Marshawn Lynch. They had major Oline problems a lot of those years, not Dallas’ “we’re barely top 10!” Problems. Russell Wilson made due with what he had and was routinely perceived as a top 5 QB because of it. What happened in 2022 to Dak never happened to Wilson pre trade. What happened to Dak to open 2018 never happened to Wilson pre trade. What happened to Dak in 2020 before he got hurt never happened to Wilson pre trade. Seattle hasn’t had a roster as good as Dallas’s since… 2015? Yet Russell was better, and their team results were comparable.

And Matt Stafford was not worth 2 firsts, that’s revisionist history. They had to pay extra for Detroit to take Goff’s contract:

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/lions-agre...rd-to-rams-in-blockbuster-deal-involving-jare

“Detroit's decision to take on Goff's large contract ended up costing L.A. more.”

Without that factor, I would guess Stafford would have gone for a 1 and a conditional 2. That’s right about what I think you’d get for Dak

 

[CowboyRoy]

Well I don’t blame Dak either for the post season losses at least not solely

I do however recognize that while he may not be completely at fault he didn’t stand out either

Maybe you’re right if the browns would give up as much as they did for the massage room bandit then I guess it’s possible someone could pony up for Dak the draft capital you mentioned

His contract is problematic but so is watsons and deshaun hasn’t accomplished nothing with Houston either

yah I mean your eventually trading with the dumbest, most desperate GM out there that usually wins trading for these guys. Now there is the Jerry Jones factor. That might be a worry.

And I am not sure you can fault Dak for playing poorly against the #1 defense in football the last two years. Its not like anyone on our offense played great the last two years.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

You have this wrong....so I forgive you!

OK...so help a fella out....in brief. What is it I have wrong?

 

[CowboyRoy]

And Russell Wilson blew out Peyton Manning in a SB. Is that any indication he’s better? What does that state in comparing the two QBs? Absolutely nothing. You’re trying to contradict your own argument:

You establish that without a great team, Wilson didn’t make the SB. That informs you Dak is comparable because he never made it that far himself because he didn’t have Seattle’s D. Then you turn around and say this:

Mahomes’ team doesn’t have close the talent Dak has. Remove all teams’ QBs; Dallas is a top 5 most talented team, KC isn’t top 10. Do you realize how many rookies and second year players they have on defense? Were they even a top 15 D? They have a bottom third WR group, and arguably worse RB room. Dallas is absolutely loaded compared to KC. The difference is the QB

Yes, all QBs need a team around them. But it not as an absolutist as you are painting it. The QB has an extraordinarily high influence on the outcome of a game, especially when the talent level of the two teams is comparable. You can also evaluate the talent and ability of a player without needing to see him get that far in the playoffs. How does he do when he doesn’t have that talent? What happens when the team is expected to be bad?

In 2018 before you traded for Amari, Dak was not having a great season. If that trade didn’t go through, and Dak continued to play as he had early that season, is he your franchise QB right now? There’s a strong possibility that isn’t the case.

In 2020, Seattle was considered a rebuilding team. Russell Wilson had a phenomenal season and they went 12-4. That was the ninth consecutive year he had a winning record. They didnt always have a great D. They didn’t always have Marshawn Lynch. They had major Oline problems a lot of those years, not Dallas’ “we’re barely top 10!” Problems. Russell Wilson made due with what he had and was routinely perceived as a top 5 QB because of it. What happened in 2022 to Dak never happened to Wilson pre trade. What happened to Dak to open 2018 never happened to Wilson pre trade. What happened to Dak in 2020 before he got hurt never happened to Wilson pre trade. Seattle hasn’t had a roster as good as Dallas’s since… 2015? Yet Russell was better, and their team results were comparable.

And Matt Stafford was not worth 2 firsts, that’s revisionist history. They had to pay extra for Detroit to take Goff’s contract:

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/lions-agre...rd-to-rams-in-blockbuster-deal-involving-jare

“Detroit's decision to take on Goff's large contract ended up costing L.A. more.”

Without that factor, I would guess Stafford would have gone for a 1 and a conditional 2. That’s right about what I think you’d get for Dak

And after all that you come to the conclusion that we would get a 1 and a 2? Thats pretty close to what I said with 2 #1's and two 3rd rounders.

And you have to be joking about Mahomes not having talent around him. And what about the coaching?
Tyreke Hill and Kelsy werent talented? Mahomes didnt have the #2 Oline last year? The #2 pass rushing defense last year? Reid isnt a top 3 coach in NFL history? Jones came in 2nd in DPOY voting.

Plenty of recent examples showing that 2 first round picks is the norm in these instances.

So Wilson blew out Manning did he? First of all he didnt play Manning he played the Denver D. And that was what? 2014? Do you know what the stat line for Wilson was in that game? 206 yards and 2 TD's. Wilson barely broke a sweat. The Seattle D made that one a laugher.

Since you like to go around cherry picking things I took just one of them and contradicted it.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Let’s just package Dak and Parsons and see what we can get. Lol There’s been at least two threads asking about Parsons trade value. If it was up to some here they would trade all our best players. What a wacky fanbase.

Would the Jaguars give up Trevor Lawrence for that package?

No chance in hell.

And that fact says a lot.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

And after all that you come to the conclusion that we would get a 1 and a 2? Thats pretty close to what I said with 2 #1's and two 3rd rounders.

And you have to be joking about Mahomes not having talent around him. And what about the coaching?
Tyreke Hill and Kelsy werent talented? Mahomes didnt have the #2 Oline last year? The #2 pass rushing defense last year? Reid isnt a top 3 coach in NFL history? Jones came in 2nd in DPOY voting.

Plenty of recent examples showing that 2 first round picks is the norm in these instances.

So Wilson blew out Manning did he? First of all he didnt play Manning he played the Denver D. And that was what? 2014? Do you know what the stat line for Wilson was in that game? 206 yards and 2 TD's. Wilson barely broke a sweat. The Seattle D made that one a laugher.

Since you like to go around cherry picking things I took just one of them and contradicted it.

A 1 and a conditional 2 is way different than 2 guaranteed firsts and 2 3’s. Thats about twice as expensive. 1’s are worth 2-3 times that of 2’s, especially a high 1 coming from a team bad enough to need Dak. A conditional 2 very likely ends up a 3, particularly with both the time Dak has missed the last 3 years, and the dramatic difference in his play when he doesn’t have as much talent around him.

I didn’t say Mahomes didn’t have talent around him. Again you’re resorting to hyperbole and ignoring the context of the statement. In the context of Dallas and KC without their QBs, Dallas is hands down more talented. It’s not close. Mahomes is all the difference in player talent on the field.

The statline in that Super Bowl was 206 and 2 TDs because they blew them out so bad they ran the ball the entire second half. Again, context matters. And I only brought up Manning vs Wilson because you felt it was important to bring up Wilson vs the Cowboys and Dak for some unknown reason. Literally just to show how silly that was on your part, and you agree by ripping mine apart.

 

[KJJ]

Would the Jaguars give up Trevor Lawrence for that package?

No chance in hell.

And that fact says a lot.

Trevor Lawrence was rated a generational QB who just led the Jags to the playoffs for the first time in years. He was the number one overall pick. Why would they give him up for Dak and Parsons? They wouldn’t give him up for any package deal unless Mahomes was part of it. Get real!

 

[CowboyRoy]

A 1 and a conditional 2 is way different than 2 guaranteed firsts and 2 3’s. Thats about twice as expensive. 1’s are worth 2-3 times that of 2’s, especially a high 1 coming from a team bad enough to need Dak. A conditional 2 very likely ends up a 3, particularly with both the time Dak has missed the last 3 years, and the dramatic difference in his play when he doesn’t have as much talent around him.

I didn’t say Mahomes didn’t have talent around him. Again you’re resorting to hyperbole and ignoring the context of the statement. In the context of Dallas and KC without their QBs, Dallas is hands down more talented. It’s not close. Mahomes is all the difference in player talent on the field.

The statline was 206 and 2 TDs because they blew them out so bad they ran the ball the entire second half. Context matters. And I only brought up Manning vs Wilson because you felt it was important to bring up Wilson vs the Cowboys and Dak for some unknown reason. Literally just to show how silly that was on your part, and you agree by ripping it apart.

Oh yah..........its waaaaaay different. LOL

Cmon!

Anyone that watched Wilson in 2020 could tell he was no longer the elite QB he once was. Arm wasnt there and he wasnt able to dictate the game with his legs like he used to. Seattle was smart to trade him as they must have seen it too. Wilson was clearly over the hill. And look no further than the horrid results of what he did last year in Denver.

I brought up Cowboys beating Seattle in the playoff game because some of the team success fans puts lots of stock in those things. to me it means minimal in evaluating individual performances.

The simple fact is that NONE of the QB's traded were worth what they were traded for. But you always have that one desperate, dumb GM that will overpay. It would be no different with Dak if there was a bidding war.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Would the Jaguars give up Trevor Lawrence for that package?

No chance in hell.

And that fact says a lot.

Not a chance in hell? I bet they do that in a heartbeat. A team would be dumb not to do that one. Dak has had a better career and Parsons is a top 2 or 3 defensive player in the NFL in only his 3rd year in the NFL.

 

[MS17]

yah I mean your eventually trading with the dumbest, most desperate GM out there that usually wins trading for these guys. Now there is the Jerry Jones factor. That might be a worry.

And I am not sure you can fault Dak for playing poorly against the #1 defense in football the last two years. Its not like anyone on our offense played great the last two years.

Ahhh. The Jerry Jones factor. Sounds like some disorder that feckless pro sports owners contract.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Oh yah..........its waaaaaay different. LOL

Cmon!

Anyone that watched Wilson in 2020 could tell he was no longer the elite QB he once was. Arm wasnt there and he wasnt able to dictate the game with his legs like he used to. Seattle was smart to trade him as they must have seen it too. Wilson was clearly over the hill. And look no further than the horrid results of what he did last year in Denver.

I brought up Cowboys beating Seattle in the playoff game because some of the team success fans puts lots of stock in those things. to me it means minimal in evaluating individual performances.

The simple fact is that NONE of the QB's traded were worth what they were traded for. But you always have that one desperate, dumb GM that will overpay. It would be no different with Dak if there was a bidding war.

It’s the age old comment that the random guy on the message board knows football better than 32 front offices.

Culture changing QBs are worth their weight in gold; you could extend your philosophy to drafts: was KC was mistaken to use a first to move up to take Mahomes, effectively spending 2 1’s on him before he took an NFL snap? Was Jacksonville wrong to not accept 3 1’s for the Trevor Lawrence pick? Is Dallas making a mistake by not dumping Dak’s contract if he’s not nearly as valuable as the position is perceived?

 

[CowboyRoy]

Ahhh. The Jerry Jones factor. Sounds like some disorder that feckless pro sports owners contract.

Jerry was born with it.

 

[CowboyRoy]

It’s the age old comment that the random guy on the message board knows football better than 32 front offices.

Culture changing QBs are worth their weight in gold; you could extend your philosophy to drafts: was KC was mistaken to use a first to move up to take Mahomes, effectively spending 2 1’s on him before he took an NFL snap? Was Jacksonville wrong to not accept 3 1’s for the Trevor Lawrence pick? Is Dallas making a mistake by not dumping Dak’s contract if he’s not nearly as valuable as the position is perceived?

My philosophy? You mean the ones you keep making up that I am saying? Drafts? Your all over the place buddy. You make up some perceived thing you think I said and then go off on tangents. LOL

Dak is better than Wilson 2021 or later. Prior to that Wilson was elite, but he fell off a shelf. Not my fault the Denver guys didnt see that. All they had to do was call me and I would have told them. LOL

They are paying for it now.

Watson is no way better than Dak especially with his league suspension nonsense. Stafford is on par with Dak's skills. That one is very similar. 2 first rounders was the price. Stafford was 34 at the time.

Goff is still a good QB despite his contract and Detroit got two firsts. It was well worth it. Goff had a great year in Detroit last year.

Besides, Im actually tired of arguing with a guy that actually agrees with me for the most part.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

My philosophy? You mean the ones you keep making up that I am saying? Drafts? Your all over the place buddy. You make up some perceived thing you think I said and then go off on tangents. LOL

Dak is better than Wilson 2021 or later. Prior to that Wilson was elite, but he fell off a shelf. Not my fault the Denver guys didnt see that. All they had to do was call me and I would have told them. LOL

They are paying for it now.

Watson is no way better than Dak especially with his league suspension nonsense. Stafford is on par with Dak's skills. That one is very similar. 2 first rounders was the price. Stafford was 34 at the time.

Goff is still a good QB despite his contract and Detroit got two firsts. It was well worth it. Goff had a great year in Detroit last year.

Besides, Im actually tired of arguing with a guy that actually agrees with me for the most part.

Russell Wilson’s 2022 was post-trade so that’s moot. He was injured in 2021, so it doesn’t matter if you don’t value those two years as highly as Dak’s last two years; he was traded for what he did prior to 2021, which you just called elite. Dak was never elite. Watson was also significantly better than Dak, where are you getting that? He was fantastic his first few years, one of the best we’ve seen. Again, what he did post-trade is moot. And as we’ve already established, Stafford alone was not worth 2 1’s.

Your philosophy is only what YOUVE stated, not me:

The simple fact is that NONE of the QB's traded were worth what they were traded for.

If you would like to revise that and say you didn’t mean it, then that’s fine. But that’s what I was replying to. No one in the NFL believes that. Wilson’s and Watson’s comp was expected, it was Watson’s contract terms that were an issue. Rodgers’ comp was considered pretty good on the Jets’ side.