I just thought i would chip in with my opinion. I have both the PS3 and XBox 360 (used to have a wii, but sold it cause i needed money and never played it). Between the 2, I play the 360 much more than the PS3. I love the PS3, but mostly for the Blu-Ray (which is useless to you without a HDTV). I really cant stand the PS3 controller (360 controller is my fvorite of all time). I have the 60gb PS3 and have played mostly PS2 games on it,
The XBlive gold is def worth it IMO, but I play online with friends a lot.
As far as reliability, I have had problems with both systems. I have had 2 RROD's, both times MS sent me a refurbished with little hassle. Pretty annoying though. All the arcade games I dloaded and game extras are still available, but I have to be online for them to work (only for the ones I dloaded on the previous xbox's) which I find really annoying (internet comes and goes depending on my finances). For example, downloaded Bejeweled 2 when I originally got my Xbox. Now, I can only play the full version if I am online (it says trial game only when I'm off-line). I re-downloaded everything I downloaded before and it still does that to me. Anything I have purchased on my current system is available online or offline (i hope this makes sense).
My PS3 is the 60GB model they discontinued. It will occasionally freeze or nothing will come up when I turn it on. This is always fixed by resetting the power switch on the back (knock on wood). My disc drive is wearing out or something, because discs barely eject now, which is pretty annoying.
I love both systems, but if I could have only 1, and if games were my main emphasis I would choose XBox. But, if multi-media use with some casual gaming was my main goal I would probably go PS3. Either way, I think you will have fun.
I recommend at least 20gb hdd if you buy a 360. I download a lot of game content and videos, so I am eventually going to purchase the 120gb hdd. I have to delete content all the time to make space (I have 20GB) which sucks. You can always re-download anything you purchase, so its not that bad (unless you lose your internet of course) and there is a download history that shows everything you have purchased under your profile (which is a nice feature)
Hope it helps.