I think part of what gets everyone confused here is normally the guy you have ranked at #5 is someone who you expect to become a multiple time Pro Bowl selection and maybe even an All-Pro. This represents an elite player, a game breaker, a difference maker.
However, this draft was very weak at the top, okay for non-impact first rounders, okay for second round talent but really strong in 3rd round talent.
The problem with that analysis is that you are inferring the value of the player from the ordinal ranking and not the absolute value of the player.
For example, say that each team gives a score based on the quality of the player itself from 0 to 10 where:
10 = Hall of Fame talent
9 = multiple Pro Bowler
8 = quality starter, may make a Pro Bowl or tow
7 = above avg average starter
6 = average starter
5 = below average starter
4 = backup, spot starterd
3 = evelopmental player, marginal probability to development
2 = good college player, may be ST contributor, low chance of development
1 = avg college player, not NFL quality, longshot to develop
1 = below avg college player
Now normally a #5 pick would be thought to be around 9.4 or so and let's say the #31 pick is thought to be a 7 and a top of the third rounder is a 6.5. Now this is more of an absolute type scale.
This year I think they thought the #5 player was a 8.4, the #31 player was projected to be a 7.3 and the #74 player was projected to be a 6.5. This is the point that people are missing - the Cowboys may have thought the difference in quality between their #5 (8.4) guy and their #22 (7.5) guy might have been very little in terms of their projected contributions. Because they think their #22 guy will fall because of that low 40 time that they're not worried about whether he will fall to #31. At 31 they can grab him before other teams that might think highly of him and have a need for an immediate starter at Center draft. So they position themselves well and end up getting their target all along at a huge position of need, still get a game one starter, still get a 5-year cheap contract and now also get another shot to draft at #74. The draft goes in their favour and they get their #23 player at pick #74 who they also rate at 7.5. So instead of getting one 8.4 player they get two 7.5 players.
Now you add in the fact that the DC doesn't think the #5 player fits his scheme all that well and won't be an impact player for him. He is also telling you that he feels set at DL and does not want any more players to add tot he mix this year. Meanwhile you have a QB getting pounded by pressure up the middle and an offense that has struggled mightily running betweent he Tackles and you have the best point of attack interior blocker in the draft who also has an incredible anchor in pass protection sitting on the board. By the time the coaches tell you what they think the draft grades maybe go Floyd is a 7.9 and Frederick is a 7.7 for us.
I think given what the coaches think of the players and the needs we have a the relative positions the decision to trade Floyd and get the rights to pick TFred and Terrance Williams was a pretty big win.
Now the only question is whether we chose wisely and can develop these guys. I don't care too much about how Floyd does and hope he has a successful career and his production really has very little bearing on what we were able to accomplish with the guys we chose. I might rue a bit if he ends up being a HOFer but I don't think he is going to be that good.
