waldoputty
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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.
There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.
See below:
This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.
In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...
What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.
The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.
And that's a shame.
it really does not matter whether a stats 101 level regression calculation is appropriate or not for run efficiency relevancy to passing efficiency.
there is a 14 person team working on analytics. there are a few coaches in the group, but it is highly doubtful they are the ones doing the regression or god forbid, developing the model. there must be some quants in the group that is doing the work.
it is highly doubtful that one year of analytics study will teach a few jogs that much about statistics. that does not make them a fraud. all you can hope for from even one year of intense serious study in analytics is an appreciation of importance of analytics. does anyone really expect someone (likely) with ZERO background in stats and math to truly get more than that. you have got to be kidding.
and having the coach understand the proper role of analytics is really all you need and want. this is not baseball where analytics play a bigger role, and the conditions are much more relevant for a more scientific approach for improving pitching and hitting. there are far more variables that cannot be accounted for in football.
so there is no need to argue whether run efficiency matters to pass efficiency. to interpret a simple regression model is stats 101. but really understanding the model and how flimsy the model is is actually something you would hire a phd to do.