Was Frederick Worth a First Round Pick?

[CowboyDiver]

We had a first round need at Center, so if he proves to be that kind of guy then it was a well made pick. It looks promising thus far.

 

[jobberone]

lol No, but Larry Allen would drink a 40.

Where do these Cowboy fans come from?

I need to watch the game again tomorrow, but I really think that on a few plays he turned his man and went and got someone in the second level. Several times. Of course he was beat on some plays, but not many.

He was getting to the second level and sealing well. I liked what I saw.

 

[theogt]

Agree. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, the available information had our 5th overall player on the board available at 18, and we passed to trade down for less value than the trade chart.

Once that horrible decision was made, I had no problem with picking Frederick at 31. But Floyd absolutely should have been the pick at 18.

If you think drafting the highest rated person on your board is the only way to make a good decision, then you're right. Most people would disagree.

 

[Fredd]

yes, huge area of need and this guy has that nasty streak that could rub off on some of the other OL, I think Leary has a little of that as well

 

[AsthmaField]

yes, huge area of need and this guy has that nasty streak that could rub off on some of the other OL, I think Leary has a little of that as well

Yeah, it appears as if Frederick and Leary will be a really, really big upgrade on the inside.

The tackles are playing extremely well too though. It isn't just inside where the improved play is coming from. Both Smith and Free are WAY ahead of where they were at the beginning of the season last year. Add the better tackle play to the much improved interior play and you end up with Romo sitting back there, picking the secondary apart while the RB's have a 6 yard per average.

 

[Deep_South]

I think down the road we are going to look back at the Frederick pick as being a significant step in making the Cowboys once again a perennial playoff team.

 

[Echo9]

I doubt he would have lasted until pick #47.

With rumor that the ravens were planning on taking him at the 32nd spot, I'd have to agree. Granted those are only rumors, but there has since been talk out of Baltimore about a need at center, so that may lend credence to that.

More O linemen went faster this draft than any previous draft. 3 Factors played into this. 1) This was weak draft at the so called "skill-positons" 2) There were some talented O lineman than usual and 3) A lot of teams needed help at O line. Although I do think that Pugh was our target until the Giants took him, I'm happier that we got Frederick.

I'm still curious about how Floyd pans out, purely for rueage purposes. But IF he continues to play as he has these last few weeks, we got a great value.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

As good as Warmack and Cooper can be, I'm kinda glad we got Fred instead. I think center makes the entire line better.

 

[hra8700]

If you think drafting the highest rated person on your board is the only way to make a good decision, then you're right. Most people would disagree.

I dont think you ALWAYS should draft the best player on your board, because in nfl it is very difficult to trade players for a variety of reasons. Situations it is ok to not draft the best player on your board:

1. Two players are ranked very closely, but one position is much higher need.
2. You beleive you have ranked a player higher than other teams and that the player will be available in a later round (you can tell from the cowboys boards released that they do this regularly) or via trade down.
3. All the players worth that pick are gone and you get a good trade down offer.
4. Highest players on the board are: at positions of depth AND do not present particular value at that draft spot AND you get good trade value to move back.

Unfortunately none of the conditions of 4 were met. When you have a player that is rated much higher than your draft slot, you draft him even if it is at a position of ridiculous strength (like corner for us)

 

[InmanRoshi]

As good as Warmack and Cooper can be, I'm kinda glad we got Fred instead. I think center makes the entire line better.

He looks better than Warmack does at this point. Warmack gave up a sack on Friday, got pushed backwards a couple of times in the running game after defenders got into his pads and I counted at least two plays where he ended up on the ground after getting caught lunging at poeple rather than bending at the knees and keeping his feet under him. I saw a lot of the same stuff I saw on his tape from Alabama. He's alright on the move when he gets a full head of steam, but in the phone booth he's slow off the snap, plays upright and is more of a waist bender than a knee bender.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

He looks better than Warmack does at this point. Warmack gave up a sack on Friday and I counted at least two plays where he ended up on the ground after getting caught lunging at poeple rather than bending at the knees and keeping his feet under him. I saw a lot of the same stuff I saw on his tape from Alabama, except the NFL don't just stand there and let themselves be bullied like they do in college.

Yeah, I thought Warmack was slightly overrated before the draft. How is Cooper looking? I heard he was beasting in Ari. I'd still rather have a left side of Smith-Leary-Fred than Smith-Cooper-Costa. Call me crazy. I just think center makes both guards better.

 

[Califan007]

I just don't like Commander fans. And, that would be you. And the reason I don't like you fans is because you Commanders only come to this board when you have a winning season. Otherwise, you guys disappear like roaches.

Now, go to your room, put on a dress and a hog nose and relive your glory days.

I always heard Skins fans are "always here" every offseason declaring themselves the next eventual SB winners...now you're the 2nd Cowboys member who claims we're never here--until now lol.

I could find you the posts if you'd like...hell, you may have even been one of the ones who said it.

 

[Verdict]

Based on the information we have available so far ..... I think the answer to that question is a resounding YES.

 

[theogt]

I dont think you ALWAYS should draft the best player on your board, because in nfl it is very difficult to trade players for a variety of reasons. Situations it is ok to not draft the best player on your board:

1. Two players are ranked very closely, but one position is much higher need.
2. You beleive you have ranked a player higher than other teams and that the player will be available in a later round (you can tell from the cowboys boards released that they do this regularly) or via trade down.
3. All the players worth that pick are gone and you get a good trade down offer.
4. Highest players on the board are: at positions of depth AND do not present particular value at that draft spot AND you get good trade value to move back.

Unfortunately none of the conditions of 4 were met. When you have a player that is rated much higher than your draft slot, you draft him even if it is at a position of ridiculous strength (like corner for us)

They had Frederick (plus two other players) ranked 15 or so spots behind Floyd. All three were at a position of much greater need, and they thought they could get one of them after trading down. I wouldn't overrate the top end of the draft -- particularly when it's a defensive lineman who doesn't rush the passer. I'd say it was a combination to some extent of each of 1, 2 and 3.

 

[hra8700]

They had Frederick (plus two other players) ranked 15 or so spots behind Floyd. All three were at a position of much greater need, and they thought they could get one of them after trading down. I wouldn't overrate the top end of the draft -- particularly when it's a defensive lineman who doesn't rush the passer. I'd say it was a combination to some extent of each of 1, 2 and 3.

As I said above, I think when a player FALLS to you, meaning you had him rated much higher than your draft spot, you take him NO MATTER WHAT. Because it's extra value. The only time you don't do that is if you think you had the player rated abnormally high compared to the rest of the league. I don't think that's the case here. I think a lot of teams had Floyd rated very highly and passed for a variety of reasons. It's theoretically possible that every team in the league had him in their top 10 but he fell to 23 because each team either went with a need position or had a pet cat rated higher than him. A player's draft position is not necessarily his consensus value if you average every team's ranking. I'll note that I think the average draft board of all 32 teams adjusted for scheme is much more accurate than any single teams board. So if a team thinks they have a player rated much higher than the rest of the league, they absolutely should not draft him there, because they're more likely to be wrong than to be right. This concept of always trusting YOUR board and YOUR scouts is very flawed. But I think this was a "true fall", meaning individual circumstances of each team led to a player falling below his consensus value.

A player being 17 spots lower is not what I meant by "ranked very closely". By that i mean, at most 1-2 spots different in the 1st round. Also, the individual rank order on the draft board is not important. 17 spots on our board is the equivalent of probably 30 spots on a real draft board, because teams take scheme into account for their board. I think it is important to note absolute quality rather than relative quality on a draft board, and that is not information we have. It's very possible (and my guess) that the Cowboys had Floyd rated as a player approximately worth a 15-20th overall pick in an average draft (because of the lack of top talent in this year's draft), and Frederick rated as a player worth approximately the 30-40th pick. That is the only way to justify this as not an egregiously poor draft decision.

 

[jobberone]

If the team thinks the OL is the main culprit and C is a priority then they did the right thing. I think the Boys didn't want Floyd so they took the best route they could. And remember deal #1 fell thru.

The draft is a crap shoot so getting a solid stater at a great need is a good thing esp if you add another player to the mix. If he turns out well then you're golden.

 

[mmillman]

Too soon to answer.

True. You also don't know how the guys they passed on like Floyd and Eifert pan out. Eifert, I am hearing is a complete stud. Haven't heard anything about Floyd. I know he is injured right now.

 

[dwmyers]

I wrote about the issue here: http://codeandfootball.wordpress.co...-you-draft-pundits-thoughts-on-the-nfl-draft/

One of the reasons this pick got a lot of attention is that his valuation was all over the place. Some had him a high 2nd rounder, Dallas had him as a top 20 pick, some had him as a 4th rounder. Big spreads mean, ironically, if you must have the guy, you have to pick him at the upper tail of the distribution, and of course you're going to get folks saying you paid too much for the player.

The nice thing is, the above isn't a 'wait for 2 preseason games' conclusion, it was pretty much after the draft.

 

[hra8700]

I wrote about the issue here: http://codeandfootball.wordpress.co...-you-draft-pundits-thoughts-on-the-nfl-draft/

One of the reasons this pick got a lot of attention is that his valuation was all over the place. Some had him a high 2nd rounder, Dallas had him as a top 20 pick, some had him as a 4th rounder. Big spreads mean, ironically, if you must have the guy, you have to pick him at the upper tail of the distribution, and of course you're going to get folks saying you paid too much for the player.

The nice thing is, the above isn't a 'wait for 2 preseason games' conclusion, it was pretty much after the draft.

This is all true, but if you're using it to justify the Cowboys decision it hinges on the assumption that you should TRY to get the players you like in a draft. I completely disagree with this assumption. Your goal on draft day is to get as much value out of the draft relative to your scheme (keeping in mind possible scheme change) and current team (keeping in mind trade possibilities and possibilities in free agency either now or in the future) as possible. The latter two considerations are important since there's no such thing as "absolute value" for draft picks. Given those assumptions, players with wide distributions of grades should generally be avoided, because their value is their average value.

Every team uses scouts of similar ability and similar methods to evaluate talent. If this is true, a wisdom of crowds approach would indicate that the average opinion of all teams is better than any one team's opinion. Unless you KNOW that you have a SYSTEM that is CONSISTENTLY better at evaluating talent than other teams, then you should not draft players that you like that you know most teams don't like as much.

I think what BIll Bellicheck is talking about in those quotes is a particular type of player with a variety of evaluations. The Boom or Bust player. Players that have very high ceilings and very low floors. Because of the nature of free agency (mostly due to the frannchise tag), dominant players are more valuable to their team than their salary would indicate. Therefore, you should try to draft those players. Since you only have one first round pick, the way you get potentially dominant players in later rounds is to look for boom or bust players. Those players will naturally have a wider distribution of opinions, and the only way to secure them is to draft them at the early end of that distribution. As you noted, teams that have multiple draft picks (a conscious and correct strategy) can distribute that risk and are able to take more of these players.

Frederick is a different type of player with a high variance of opinion. He has certain strengths (drive blocking, intelligence) and weakness (quickness), and the question is if he can compensate for the weakness. Some think he can (high grade), some think he can't (low grade). Fact of the matter is the probability is somewhere in between, as always. But the difference here is that you are actually debating Bust or not Bust, and so there is no inherent advantage to taking this type of player, because you must take him early still but there isn't superstar upside.

 

[Questfor6]

True. You also don't know how the guys they passed on like Floyd and Eifert pan out. Eifert, I am hearing is a complete stud. Haven't heard anything about Floyd. I know he is injured right now.

Read somewhere that Floyd wasn't considered a starter in Minnesota and Frazier was quoted as saying he was at the end of their DT rotation.

I like Frederick and the pick and I highly doubt he would've been available at 47 but I still like the idea of Eifert at 18 if we were gonna bring in a TE this year. No offense to Escobar but Eifert is a complete TE who's got a chance to be real special if Cincy uses him properly.