Exactly. But some here want us to jettison the guy with 40 plus wins and take a chance on a guy who could be the next Ryan leaf. Makes total sense.
Exactly, and then I see posts like, "Well, if he doesn't work out, we can just draft another." To me, yes, you may hit the jackpot, but there's a higher likelihood of flopping. If you flop, you could potentially set your franchise back by decades. For QB flops, look at the Browns, Jets, Dolphins (before Tua who is a rookie), Buccaneers before Brady, and the Broncos since Peyton. Look how many QBs the Browns and Jets have gone through. The Cardinals before Kyler Murray went through a slew of QBs too.
Drafting poorly in general will set your team back. We don't even have to look outside the division to see this. The WFT hasn't exactly got a record of great QBs lately. Since 2007, the Commanders/WFT have only made the playoffs in 2012 and 2015. They won a playoff game in neither of those matchups. They haven't won a playoff game since 2005 when they were QBd by Mark Brunell (who was in his 11th season), Jason Campbell, and Patrick Ramsey. In addition, since 2005, they have had losing seasons (below .500) in 2006, 2009, 2010 (when they were QBd by Donovan McNabb), 2011, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019. That is 9 such seasons in 15 seasons! Think of how many high draft picks that they have had. BTW, their record in those losing seasons? 5-11, 4-12, 6-10, 5-11, 3-13, 4-12, 7-9, 7-9, and 3-13. So, when they have losing seasons, they tend to fail in style!
Furthermore, and going back to what I was saying earlier, there haven't been many 1st round QB gems since 2015.
2015 1st round QBs:
Jameis Winston - Garbage
Marcus Mariota - Garbage
2016 1st round QBs:
Jared Goff - Average at best
Carson Wentz (Eagles traded a lot to get him) - Average at best/Garbage
Paxton Lynch - Garbage and BUST
The best QB in this draft was selected in a comp pick 4th round pick. I wonder which QB that was and which team picked him......oh yes, Dak! Selected by the Cowboys! Amazing!
2017 1st round QBs (best of the draft classes):
Mitch Trubsiky - Just now seeing the light, but has been putrid.
Patrick Mahomes - Brilliant. One of the all time greats
Deshaun Watson - great QB on a garbage team
2018 1st round QBs:
Baker Mayfield - may finally have something there, but turns the ball over a lot
Sam Darnold - Garbage/Garbage team
Josh Allen - Excellent QB, best of this draft class
Josh Rosen - BUST
Lamar Jackson - Brilliant running ability, decent arm
2019 1st round QBs:
Kyler Murray - Great QB
Daniel Jones - Average at the moment
Dwayne Haskins - Bust and just got cut
That's 4 maybe 5 if you want to count Baker solid/Excellent QBs since 2015. I'm not counting 2020 because rookies take time to develop. With that said, this is a PATHETIC record for 1st round QBs. Then you have 5 or 6 average first round QBs, and 6 garbage QBs in that span. 15 QBs, and 4-5 solid/excellent/brilliant QBs. So, at best, we have seen only one third of those QBs be brilliant. In fact, only Patrick Mahomes is the kind of QB that you can truly say doesn't need all that much help given how elite he is, though having Travis Kelce and the Cheetah on offense helps. Oh, and their defence is excellent. Yet some think a 1st round QB is a cure all to end all? Imagine deciding that you don't want to keep a proven commodity in Dak and you end up with a Dwayne Haskins or Josh Rosen. Guess what? Now you've just dug yourselves a massive hole. Oh, and you have other areas on your team that you need much more desperately. With the way our defence is, specifically against the run, we can't afford a bust QB. So, let's look at the QBs this draft that are slated as first round picks.
Sure, you have Barbie Lawrence, but he can practically begin moving to Jacksonville at this point barring some unforeseen circumstance occurring. After Barbie Lawrence, there aren't many QBs that I can see in this draft that are a sure fire QB. The BYU QB looks decent, but he will need development. Justin Fields might be good, but I'm not sold on him. Trey Lance of North Dakota State is probably the only 1st round QB that we have a shot at that looks good. He is a small school QB like a certain QB in our division that hasn't exactly panned out that great aside from one season. At this moment, we need LB, Safety, and DT (to compliment Gallimore) much more than we need QB at the moment.