Goff traded for Stafford

[RustyBourneHorse]

Shame they didn't go to the border of Peru and Bolivia. Then they could've hung out at Lake Titicaca. I just wanted to have the opportunity to say that cuz I really like saying it's name haha. Lake Titicaca!

 

[MonsterD]

Interesting so Washington FT's offer wasn't better than the Rams'.

 

[T-RO]

Did Manning have a good season, post neck fuse trade? I swear he struggled mightily after that and was carried by a good defense and running game.

Entering 2012 season teams felt real hesitation to offer Manning big free agency money since he'd missed previous season with that neck injury. Peyton had THREE consecutive neck surgeries and two soldered vertebrae.

He was 37.

Denver took the risk, and were reward w/two consecutive 13-3 seasons. In the second of those (2013) Manning threw for 55 touchdowns and MVP. In the fourth and final year w/Broncos Manning was fading but team won Super Bowl.

Link
https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...3b5ca6-3a55-11e3-b7ba-503fb5822c3e_story.html

All-time Record TD passes
Manning 2013... 55
Brady 2007... 50
Mahomes 2018... 50

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

I shave my head. Here you go again, running from your accusations. You’re like the little runt on the playground or the frat boy in the bar that says something to someone they shouldn’t have said something to and then run away thinking you’re a tough guy. Now you want to talk about my significant other? For the record, I would put good money on her kicking the holy living crap out of you and making you her little boy.

beat him up, Aria!
I will be your corner man.

 

[ShortRound]

Interesting so Washington FT's offer wasn't better than the Rams'.

Yeah surprised at their relative control

 

[quickccc]

I agree. The kid never had a shot. I think he gets his chance this year and he will shine big time. Its like we are getting another high level rookie in the fold in 2021. He can play some OLB too.

Soley depends upon the DL coach and DC ... if new DL coach Aden Durde is another Rod Marinelli or Jim Tomsula .. then young bucks will be hindered and under developed .... If Aden Durde is exceptionally better than the previous DL coaches .. we'll hit it big with Anae, Gallimore and Hill

 

[Cebrin]

Man I wouldve loved to get that kind of haul for Dakota

Man, I love Dak, but there's no way I'd pass up that deal. 3 first round picks, and a cheaper QB? Good heavens. Feel bad for Goff.

 

[black label]

both losers lol

 

[Hadenough]

Trade Dak for 1 first rounder and that would be a huge deal for the cowboys

That would be great! I just doubt there is a team that will give up a 1st to get a QB who has yet to play a snap since a bad injury plus he wants top money.

 

[Captain-Crash]

I would take half

that or a blind mule.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

both losers lol

Fair enough lol

 

[Doomsday101]

Hell if I'm a Lions fan I'm laughing my butt off on this deal. 2 1st rd picks and a 3rd rd pick and I get a QB who helped lead his team to a SB. In return I have to give up a QB who has made post season 4 times in 12 seasons and never won a game.

 

[LatinMind]

LOL, no. The Rams gave up Goff, 2 1st round picks, and a 3rd round pick.

lol damn guess i got that wrong. thats just wow

 

[DFWJC]

So I ran the numbers on all trades involving future 1st and 2nd round picks dating back 10 years.

The NFL GMs devalue a future pick by about 50-55% each year forward.

• A 2022 1st rounder is worth about pick 40-48 in the 2021 draft
• A 2023 1st rounder is worth about pick 75-80 in the 2021 draft

This is not at all my idea...so don't shoot the messenger

But it is also not disputable.....I looked at every single trade involving future picks and it was astounding how accurate this assumption is.
Almost always in the 93-99% accuracy range just using the standard trade chart and these devaluations on future picks
That is for sure how they handle future picks.
This even applies to 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders if comp picks are assumed.
A 2022 3rd rounder is currently valued as mid 2021 4th rounder. Dozens of examples...no exceptions.

Julio Jones, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, RG3, Watkins, Watson, Ingram, etc, etc....all used future 1st rounders and all matched using this formal
The only two minor exceptions in 10 years were in 2016 Goff and Wentz....they only match in the 80-87% range. But at the very top of the draft, it's hard to get perfect matches due to crazy valautions.

Anyway, taking these trade practices into account
The LA Rams gave the Lions Goff and the equivalent of this year's 15th pick for Stafford.

 

[Verdict]

I had a gut reaction to this trade, and initially, I felt like the Rams got fleeced, but after the dust has settled and I have evaluated this trade further I have some thoughts that make me less definite about my initial gut feeling.

The following factors will be part of who will ultimately win out in this trade

1. A lot of the trade depends on your evaluation of Goff. Was he a bus driver who has been holding the Rams back, with an albatross of a contract? The Rams are the team “most likely” to know exactly who Goff is. That indicates that the Rams think he is the bus driver with the bad contract. Detroit may think Goff is salvageable. If so, and he becomes a viable option at QB then that’s a factor in the winner and loser in this trade.

2. What do other NFL teams think about Goff? Maybe the Lions think they can pull an OKC Thunder and at some point ship Goff off for further draft pick or player consideration.

3. How good or bad will the Rams be when the draft picks come to fruition? If the Rams end up winning the next two Super Bowls because of Stafford, the Rams will be picked apart by other teams, but they will likely get several comp picks out of the departing players which will lessen the “cost” of the trade. Not to mention the 32nd pick is not worth anything near what pick number one is worth.

If the Rams implode due to an injury to Stafford, or if they blow it all up in two years due to being in cap hell, the value of the traded picks is much higher than what one would expect at the time this trade was made. I think everyone is expecting the Rams to be very good (probably including Detroit) but the draft pick stock can really only go up from here from Detroit’s perspective.

4. Assuming the Rams believe their window is open and that it’s a finite window, the lower contract cost will enable the Rams to bolster their team (or hold what they have together) due to Stafford’s lower cap cost the next two years.

5. Stafford would also most likely net them a compensatory pick (probably a 3rd) if Stafford leaves in free agency in year 3 when the Rams would possibly be in rebuilding mode.

 

[khiladi]

Rams also got a 5 billion dollar stadium that the NFL helped pay for. They opened but had nobody in it. They need to sell seats. They are also hosting the SB next year. They are in win-now mode.

They are NOT getting there with Goff.

 

[khiladi]

Stafford must have almost died laughing when they asked him if he wanted to go to New England and have to see Patricia again.

Supposedly, Stafford said he’d go to any organization but the Pats.

 

[khiladi]

It’s funny to me that people think this trade sets the bar for a Dak trade. Man, it would be wonderful to see Dak on Detroit. I mean Linehan was to blame by his fans, but when Linehan coached Stafford, he threw for over 41 TDs and 16 INTs and over 5000 yards in 2011, which was way more difficult to throw in than now. I mean by Dak-Stan logic, Stafford with Linehan, putting up those numbers, is the GOAT.

I mean if anybody has been deal with a revolving door of coaches, it’s Stafford and now he gets to work with McVay and a decent OL.

 

[khiladi]

I think if he is healthy, the Ram are better than Tampa now.

but its all speculation

I read a crazy stat regarding Tampa’s number 1 draft pick, Tristan Wirf.



Let’s be honest. If you put any elite QB in TB, not a deteriorating Brady who is basically playing like Eli Manning 2007 these playoffs. with this roster and this improvement at OL, they probably going to the SB anyways.

 

[khiladi]

They are and have been on the mix these past couple of years..

And if Stafford is what they hope, they are a powerhouse team with a great Coach, great QB,and a beast defense with their core signed for at least the next 2 years.

The Bucs looked like fools by signing a 40 year old QB but look what that got them.

The NFL isnt like the NFL of the 70s and 80s where you could build teams and progress year by year..
In todays NFL, you have a 3 to 4 year window and its time to blow the team up or stay in purgatory like we've been.

We are the shining example of this window. When Romo finally had the roster, we decided to mortgage that window for the Jason Garrett QB in training Dak Prescott project...