So I ran the numbers on all trades involving future 1st and 2nd round picks dating back 10 years.
The NFL GMs devalue a future pick by about 50-55% each year forward.
- A 2022 1st rounder is worth about pick 40-48 in the 2021 draft
- A 2023 1st rounder is worth about pick 75-80 in the 2021 draft
This is not at all my idea...so don't shoot the messenger
But it is also not disputable.....I looked at every single trade involving future picks and it was astounding how accurate this assumption is.
Almost always in the 93-99% accuracy range just using the standard trade chart and these devaluations on future picks
That is for sure how they handle future picks.
This even applies to 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders if comp picks are assumed.
A 2022 3rd rounder is currently valued as mid 2021 4th rounder. Dozens of examples...no exceptions.
Julio Jones, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, RG3, Watkins, Watson, Ingram, etc, etc....all used future 1st rounders and all matched using this formal
The only two minor exceptions in 10 years were in 2016 Goff and Wentz....they only match in the 80-87% range. But at the very top of the draft, it's hard to get perfect matches due to crazy valautions.
Anyway, taking these trade practices into account
The LA Rams gave the Lions Goff and the equivalent of this year's 15th pick for Stafford.