The Phantom Salary Cap Menace

[waldoputty]

Or they could have lost any number of games along the way due to improbable plays. How can you make an argument that leveraging the cap is a great route when it hasn't even been established that cap spending produces championships? Let's start there.

Eagles go on a spending spree and everyone here says, "you can't buy championships". Couple years later the Giants invest excessively in the defense and people mock them for spending too much.

But, if Dallas borrows money from future years just to get cap compliant (not even to spend heavily, just to break even), it's a great idea. Furthermore, if Dallas borrows money from the future in a year with a week FA pool, that's genius!!!

It isn't coincidental that Dallas is better team after a couple years of not blowing their wad in FA and drafting better. That's how you build a team.

you are going with conventional wisdom, but the world has changed.
the salary cap world has changed particularly for us due to 1) annual rises of $10M/year for next 4 years and 2) Romo salary cap being gone.
one of the salary cap experts on the board agrees with my financial analysis.

it is not for all teams.
it is optimal for us because the timeframe matches dez's remaining prime and the expected dominant lifetime of a running back - 4 to 5 years.
we used up 1 of elliott's dominant years already.

giants fixed their defense by spending $200M last year.
that is what we need plus a RT and sign a respectable WR2

 

[waldoputty]

I am sitting in a room with 31 other guys, we all have millions of dollars to spend on the same widgets. I am feel pretty good about myself because I have 20 million dollars to spend, but I start looking at the bank rolls of the other 31 guys and I see that my 20 million dollars ranks almost last. Now it's time to start spending our money on these widgets. Low and behold, the nice widgets are all being bought by these guys that have alot more money to spend on widgets than me. A widget that normally costs me 1 million dollars is now being bought for 2 million dollars because there is so much money in the room. All of a sudden I don't feel as good about my 20 million as I did before and I have to start buy scratched and dented widgets.

I have to admit, this is not my best work.

the difference is some of those teams suck.
you are talking about inflation.
yes prices go up and people *****, but that is the market.
you want to play, you need to pay.
simple economics.

this is what we can have for 2018 roster based on market rates contracts for proposed FA in 2017:
2018 Roster Starters & key contributors after 3 Top FA (2 DL, 1 CB1), RT, WR2 and 1 SS (Then draft BPA) - these are under contract or year 1 cap hit calculated (totals $30M including Collins and Martin)
QB - Dak, Moore (near vet min)
RB - Zeke, 2018 3rd draft pick
WR - Dez, Beasley, WR2 (assume 5 year contract $6M/year average with $5M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M + $1M = $2M), may be 2018 1st round pick
C - Frederick
G - Collins/Martin (assume 8 year contracts $9M/year average with $16 million signing bonus - year 1 hit is 2*($1M+$2M) = $6M)
OT - TSmith, RT (assume 5 year contract $8M/year average with $16 million bonus - year 1 hit is $1M + $2M = $3M)
TE - Probably Swaim if not expensive, possibly Rico, 2017 3rd round pick (Hopefully Butt)
RDE - FA (assume 5 year contract $15M/year average with $25M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M+$5M=$6M), may be Tapper, 2017 1st or 2nd round pick
DT - Collins, Thornton, Irving, may be 2018 2nd round pick
LDE - FA (assume 5 year contract $15M/year average with $25M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M+$5M=$6M), may be TCrawford
LBs - Lee, Jaylon (hopefully), Wilson, Nzeocha, may be 2017 4th round pick
FS - Jones (may resign for 2019 if pan out or high draft pick replacement),
SS - Wilcox (5 year $4M/yr with $5M bonus, year 1 hit is $1M + $1M = $2M)
CB1 - FA (assume 5 year contract $15M/year with $20M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M+$4M = $5M)
CBs - Oscan, Brown, McFadden, 2017 either 1st or 2nd round pick

 

[waldoputty]

New York vs Dallas rankings in defensive categories.

Total yards given up

New York 10th
Dallas 14th

Points

New York 2nd
Dallas 5th

Rushing Yards

Dallas 1st
New York tied at 3rd

Passing Yards

New York 23rd
Dallas 26th

Sacks

Dallas 13th
New York 14th

Yes Dallas had ONE more sack than New York

INT

New York tied at 4th
Dallas Tied at 27th

One of the only stats where the Giants were better by a decent margin...8

FF

Dallas Tied at 3rd
New York Tied at 13

Recovered Fumbles

Dallas 8th
New York tied at 19

=====================================================

Final record

Dallas 13-3
New York 11-5

=====================================================


Our Defense with no namers on it vs oveer $200 million spent in one offseason for NY...yet not much difference really.
I would say that the amount of money NY spent on Defense did not do them much better than Dallas.

New York vs Dallas rankings in defensive categories.

Total yards given up

New York 10th
Dallas 14th

Points

New York 2nd
Dallas 5th

Rushing Yards

Dallas 1st
New York tied at 3rd

Passing Yards

New York 23rd
Dallas 26th

Sacks

Dallas 13th
New York 14th

Yes Dallas had ONE more sack than New York

INT

New York tied at 4th
Dallas Tied at 27th

One of the only stats where the Giants were better by a decent margin...8

FF

Dallas Tied at 3rd
New York Tied at 13

Recovered Fumbles

Dallas 8th
New York tied at 19

=====================================================

Final record

Dallas 13-3
New York 11-5

=====================================================


Our Defense with no namers on it vs oveer $200 million spent in one offseason for NY...yet not much difference really.
I would say that the amount of money NY spent on Defense did not do them much better than Dallas.

lol, you gave me stats that are affected by the differences in the offense.

my question still are would you have pay top dollar for the 3 Giants FA last year?
and would you now?

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

lol, you gave me stats that are affected by the differences in the offense.

my question still are would you have pay top dollar for the 3 Giants FA last year?
and would you now?

I thought my answer was clear enough.

$200 million extra dollars on defense compared to our defense of no names...the stats and end results were not worth the 200 million extra dollars IMO.

One would think that Vernon alone would guarantee that that team would have had more sacks than the Cowboys...yet we still had one more sack than them and we have a bunch of no names.

 

[waldoputty]

As a guy who has more than a passing interest in economics I think this is pretty apt.

there is a big difference between the national debt and the cowboys situation.
the country cannot really afford to go bankrupt.
the cowboys could tank for 1 year to reload and reset the cap (equivalent of going bankrupt).
the world would not end.
as far as I am concerned, only the superbowl matters.
everyone else are all losers.

before you say "i have no training in economics"
i do in both econometrics and decision sciences.

 

[waldoputty]

I thought my answer was clear enough.

$200 extra dollars on defense compared to our defense of no names...the stats and end results were not worth the 200 million extra dollars IMO.

well if we put those 3 FAs on our team, i suspect the outcome would be quite different.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

well if we put those 3 FAs on our team, i suspect the outcome would be quite different.

If we put those three FAs on our team you MIGHT be right...but you also alter the outcome of our QB, Oline and Offense going forward and also are other needs at Secondary going forward since a good portion of them are FAs this year.

 

[waldoputty]

I think we're probably on the same page with this overall, but I did want to point out that the Giants did show improvement from 2015 to 2016 so that has to be factored in. For instance, they were last in 2015 in total yards per game, this year they were 10th. They were 30th in points allowed in 2015 and second in 2016. If you could guarantee that type of improvement came from that type of spending then I'd be in favor of Dallas going the same route - it means the Cowboys would have the best defense in the league by yards and points allowed.

But the Giants' success has been mostly an anomaly when it comes to spending in the free agency era. That's my biggest issue. If they could land a Janoris Jenkins clone and an Olivier Vernon clone then I'd be all for it. I don't think there will be a player of either caliber available when you factor in franchise tags and re-signings before March 9. And if there are, you can bet Dallas won't be the only team lining up for their services.

Thanks for an objective answer.
I never heard of Vernon until free agency happened last year.
How many of you went into FA last year saying - oh the Cowboys need Vernon?
Not a household name.
The point is with the new market, one has to pick the emerging gems and pay them a lot.
We are seeing massive inflation in the market.
It is reasonable to get sticker shock in such a market.
If we can adapt, we can prosper because a lot of the other GMs are old-school.

 

[waldoputty]

If we put those three FAs on our team you MIGHT be right...but you also alter the outcome of our QB, Oline and Offense going forward and also are other needs at Secondary going forward since a good portion of them are FAs this year.

That is exactly my point.

I know it is aggressive and the cap could well blow up in 2021/2022, but this is what we can have for 2018 roster based on market rates contracts for proposed FA in 2017:
2018 Roster Starters & key contributors after 3 Top FA (2 DL, 1 CB1), RT, WR2 and 1 SS (Then draft BPA) - these are under contract or year 1 cap hit calculated (totals $30M including Collins and Martin)
QB - Dak, Moore (near vet min)
RB - Zeke, 2018 3rd draft pick
WR - Dez, Beasley, WR2 (assume 5 year contract $6M/year average with $5M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M + $1M = $2M), may be 2018 1st round pick
C - Frederick
G - Collins/Martin (assume 8 year contracts $9M/year average with $16 million signing bonus - year 1 hit is 2*($1M+$2M) = $6M)
OT - TSmith, RT (assume 5 year contract $8M/year average with $16 million bonus - year 1 hit is $1M + $2M = $3M)
TE - Probably Swaim if not expensive, possibly Rico, 2017 3rd round pick (Hopefully Butt)
RDE - FA (assume 5 year contract $15M/year average with $25M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M+$5M=$6M), may be Tapper, 2017 1st or 2nd round pick
DT - Collins, Thornton, Irving, may be 2018 2nd round pick
LDE - FA (assume 5 year contract $15M/year average with $25M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M+$5M=$6M), may be TCrawford
LBs - Lee, Jaylon (hopefully), Wilson, Nzeocha, may be 2017 4th round pick
FS - Jones (may resign for 2019 if pan out or high draft pick replacement),
SS - Wilcox (5 year $4M/yr with $5M bonus, year 1 hit is $1M + $1M = $2M)
CB1 - FA (assume 5 year contract $15M/year with $20M bonus - year 1 hit is $1M+$4M = $5M)
CBs - Oscan, Brown, McFadden, 2017 either 1st or 2nd round pick

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

But again even in your example you are just throwing in FA for both DEs with no names.

I do NOT see two DEs in this FA class that I think are that good.

THAT is where we disagree.

It would seem to me that you don't care who it is, you just want a FA in that slot and you are ready to pay him big money even if they are not worth that money.

I prefer spending big money on an FA that would deserve it and otherwise trying to go through the draft as we did with our Oline. And instead of waiting till the second round, start using First round picks on the D Line.

I just don't see the FA that I will say...I think you are an ok player at best but I am going to pay you as a top 3-5 player in the league at your position, like we did with Carr.

Just not for me.

Agree to disagree

 

[waldoputty]

But again even in your example you are just throwing in FA for both DEs with no names.

I do NOT see two DEs in this FA class that I think are that good.

THAT is where we disagree.

It would seem to me that you don't care who it is, you just want a FA in that slot and you are ready to pay him big money even if they are not worth that money.

I prefer spending big money on an FA that would deserve it and otherwise trying to go through the draft as we did with our Oline. And instead of waiting till the second round, start using First round picks on the D Line.

I just don't see the FA that I will say...I think you are an ok player at best but I am going to pay you as a top 3-5 player in the league at your position, like we did with Carr.

Just not for me.

Agree to disagree

I think we have to agree to disagree.
to answer your question, FA DE/OLB edge types that may be available: Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, Nick Perry
we are seeing high rates of inflation due to the cap rise in the brave new world.
1st round DEs unusually do not contribute much in their 1st year.
that could well waste the 2nd year of a reasonable estimate of a 5-year prime for Zeke.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Out of curiosity...How many players have we gotten in FA that have went to the Pro-Bowl in the last say 15 years.
Not counting signing our own guys we drafted.

 

[waldoputty]

Out of curiosity...How many players have we gotten in FA that have went to the Pro-Bowl in the last say 15 years.
Not counting signing our own guys we drafted.

Not many if any.
I dont know.
The question is how many teams draft probowlers in the 1st round 5 years in a row.
They are doing something right.
Now that need to untie the hand behind their back and go for the kill.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Not many if any.
I dont know.
The question is how many teams draft probowlers in the 1st round 5 years in a row.
They are doing something right.
Now that need to untie the hand behind their back and go for the kill.

Yet we currently lead the league in Pro Bowl players drafted in that last few years IIRC....Now if we can get the same type of draft production on our Defensive Line as we have our Offensive line.

 

[waldoputty]

Yet we currently lead the league in Pro Bowl players drafted in that last few years IIRC....Now if we can get the same type of draft production on our Defensive Line as we have our Offensive line.

Actually the proposed FA path allows the team to go true/almost-true BPA.
That maximizes the chance for keep drafting probowlers while the fans the best team money can buy.
If we are able to draft at least 1 probowler in any position every year from 2017-2019, the tank scenario will not even be necessary.

In the most extreme case that a newly-drafted player is a QB (high unlikely), we could trade that for a lot of good things.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Actually the proposed FA path allows the team to go true/almost-true BPA.
That maximizes the chance for keep drafting probowlers while the fans the best team money can buy.
If we are able to draft at least 1 probowler in any position every year from 2017-2019, the tank scenario will not even be necessary.

In the most extreme case that a newly-drafted player is a QB (high unlikely), we could trade that for a lot of good things.

We can go BPA for the most part no matter the FA route we take. Last year we could have used more DEs but we took a RB in the first round and did not take a DE until Tapper.
However Collins helped us in the three tech.

In the years past we thought we would draft a RB in the first or second round only to completely pass up the RB position in the draft.

Jerry and Stephen have been doing a better job at taking the BPA (within reason) and not going out and over paying for FAs like they used to do.

Again...you want to over pay for FAs that are not worth the money only because the market dictates that you have to overpay for mediocre talent...I wish not to unless someone becomes available who I think is worth the money.

The beauty of FA vs the Draft is the idea that in FA you SHOULD be paying for a proven player where the draft you are getting an untested (as far as the NFL exp) player. If you are going to pay big time for a FA...you better make sure he is worth it and not just over pay like we have done with multiple FAs over the years who rarely ever lived up to the money.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

Thanks for an objective answer.
I never heard of Vernon until free agency happened last year.
How many of you went into FA last year saying - oh the Cowboys need Vernon?
Not a household name.
The point is with the new market, one has to pick the emerging gems and pay them a lot.
We are seeing massive inflation in the market.
It is reasonable to get sticker shock in such a market.
If we can adapt, we can prosper because a lot of the other GMs are old-school.

I most certainly had heard of Vernon last year, and wondered if his market-setting salary would justify great run D and about 10 sacks a season max. I'm still not sure it does, but he did have a nice impact with the Giants this season.

 

[waldoputty]

We can go BPA for the most part no matter the FA route we take. Last year we could have used more DEs but we took a RB in the first round and did not take a DE until Tapper.
However Collins helped us in the three tech.

In the years past we thought we would draft a RB in the first or second round only to completely pass up the RB position in the draft.

Jerry and Stephen have been doing a better job at taking the BPA (within reason) and not going out and over paying for FAs like they used to do.

Again...you want to over pay for FAs that are not worth the money only because the market dictates that you have to overpay for mediocre talent...I wish not to unless someone becomes available who I think is worth the money.

The beauty of FA vs the Draft is the idea that in FA you SHOULD be paying for a proven player where the draft you are getting an untested (as far as the NFL exp) player. If you are going to pay big time for a FA...you better make sure he is worth it and not just over pay like we have done with multiple FAs over the years who rarely ever lived up to the money.

I think the source of the disagreement is this.
You are saying FA are not worth for the contracts I proposed for the top FAs.
If the best players are available in FA, their true price would be much higher.
Teams are not allowing the true top players to come to the market often.
So we are not seeing what the true price is.
If a 1.5 tier player is getting $15M per year, a true tier 1 should get at least $20M or actually more.
Suh got $20M/year if my recollection is correct.

Simple supply and demand and sticker shock that goes with it.
Buy now or pay more later.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

there is a big difference between the national debt and the cowboys situation.
the country cannot really afford to go bankrupt.
the cowboys could tank for 1 year to reload and reset the cap (equivalent of going bankrupt).
the world would not end.
as far as I am concerned, only the superbowl matters.
everyone else are all losers.

before you say "i have no training in economics"
i do in both econometrics and decision sciences.

I think you're trying to manufacture an argument here where there is none

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I think the source of the disagreement is this.
You are saying FA are not worth for the contracts I proposed for the top FAs.
If the best players are available in FA, their true price would be much higher.
Teams are not allowing the true top players to come to the market often.
So we are not seeing what the true price is.
If a 1.5 tier player is getting $15M per year, a true tier 1 should get at least $20M or actually more.
Suh got $20M/year if my recollection is correct.

Simple supply and demand and sticker shock that goes with it.
Buy now or pay more later.

Or draft the player and pay him not to leave...Like we have been doing with or All Pro and Pro Bowl worthy Offensive line.